[Summary] North Korea Launches Cruise Missile... Provocations Likely to Continue Before General Election

Ten Days After Medium-Range Ballistic Missile Launch
Weight of Hwasal-1 and Hwasal-2 Capable of Carrying Tactical Nuclear Warheads

North Korea launched several cruise missiles into the West Sea on the 24th. This missile launch comes ten days after North Korea fired a new type of medium-range ballistic missile (which North Korea claims is a hypersonic missile) on the 14th.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) announced that around 7 a.m. that day, they detected multiple cruise missiles launched by North Korea into the West Sea. This is the first time in about four months since September 2 of last year that the JCS has detected and announced cruise missiles launched by the North Korean military.

The cruise missiles launched by the North Korean military that day were detected by South Korean military surveillance assets flying in a circular orbit over the sea west of Pyongyang. Cruise missiles typically conduct test launches in circular or figure-eight flight paths. Because they fly at low altitudes, unlike ballistic missiles, it is difficult to detect their launch and impact points. It is reported that the cruise missiles launched by North Korea that day are likely the Hwasal-1 or Hwasal-2 strategic cruise missiles, which North Korea claims can be equipped with tactical nuclear warheads called 'Hwasan-31.'

A military source said, "The range was not short, and it is presumed they were launched from the ground," giving weight to the possibility that they were Hwasal-1 or Hwasal-2 missiles. If these missiles are indeed Hwasal-1 or Hwasal-2, it is presumed that North Korea intended to demonstrate its actual nuclear attack capability targeting the entire Korean Peninsula and U.S. forces stationed in Japan by launching cruise missiles capable of carrying tactical nuclear warheads.

After launching cruise missiles on September 2 last year, North Korea confirmed through state media the next day that they had conducted a simulated tactical nuclear attack exercise by firing strategic cruise missiles, identifying them as Hwasal-1 and Hwasal-2.

Shin Jong-woo, a senior research fellow at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, analyzed North Korea's intention behind this cruise missile launch, stating, "It appears that North Korea is threatening with a 'salami tactic' ahead of South Korea's general election." The salami tactic refers to a strategy of achieving objectives step-by-step, like slicing thin pieces of Italian dry sausage called salami.

The JCS stated, "Detailed specifications are being analyzed precisely by South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities," adding, "Our military has strengthened surveillance and vigilance while closely cooperating with the U.S. side and is monitoring additional signs and activities from North Korea."