[SCMP Column] China's Bleak Demographics... Decisive Measures Are Needed

9.02 Million Births, Lowest Level in 74 Years
850,000 in 2022 → 2.08 Million Decrease in 2023
China's Population Peak Reached... Chronic Population Decline Predicted

Recent population data from China reveals a very concerning demographic situation. Despite the Chinese government's relaxation of birth control policies, the number of births in China in 2023 dropped to 9.02 million, the lowest level in 74 years.

Some demographers have said that this number of births may be the lowest since the mid-18th century. In other words, China's current fertility rate has fallen below levels seen during periods marked by famine, war, and social turmoil. This indicates an extreme reluctance to have children.

Secondly, China's total population decreased by 2.08 million. This is a larger figure than the 850,000 decline recorded in 2022. A reduction of 2 million people is roughly equivalent to the disappearance of two medium-sized cities from the map.

This data confirms the long-term trend that China's population has reached its peak. Some predict a chronic population decline based on the sharp decrease in population size and the accelerating rate of decline.

Thirdly, China is aging rapidly. By the end of last year, the population aged 60 and above in China reached nearly 300 million, accounting for 21.1% of the total population.

The pace of aging is faster than previous estimates. A 2022 study by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences projected that the proportion of people aged 60 and over would be around 20% by the end of 2025. However, the era of "getting old before getting rich" has already arrived.

Some argue that China's population data was influenced by one-off factors. For example, the sudden end of the zero-COVID policy at the end of 2022 led to a surge in deaths, which may have further accelerated the population decline in 2023.

On the other hand, some say that the 2024 "Year of the Dragon" could encourage young Chinese couples to have more children. However, such speculation itself reflects the nation's desperation. People are resorting to superstition to alleviate the current low birthrate crisis.

Unfortunately, although Chinese authorities recognize these demographic trends as a problem, they have yet to take decisive action or invest substantial resources to address the issue.

Of course, the central government continues to abolish various birth restrictions and strives to promote a "new culture of marriage and childbirth." However, it is clear that local governments bear heavier responsibility in providing practical incentives to encourage people to have more children.

This relaxed attitude sharply contrasts with the period from 1980 to 2016 when China's one-child policy (birth control policy) was enforced, during which the central authorities mobilized massive resources to establish strict birth control measures. Even as recently as 2001, China passed a family planning law that legally held couples responsible for limiting births.

Of course, increasing births cannot be achieved by punishing couples who refuse to have children or who want to have only one child. Efforts to promote childbirth should focus on incentives.

Some Chinese demographers, including Huang Wanjing, have called for the government to provide a monthly subsidy of 1,000 yuan (approximately 186,670 won) per child under 16 years old.

While the likelihood of such proposals being adopted quickly is slim, it is an unavoidable reality that the government must spend more money to reverse the existing population problems.

Among the "gray rhinos" China faces (risks well known through persistent warnings but easily overlooked), the population issue is probably the largest and most urgent.

If China had started encouraging childbirth in 2004 or even 2014, the situation today would be much better. If the population continues to decline and age at the current pace, the Chinese government's ambition to build a strong socialist state by mid-century will be unattainable.

The worst curse for any nation's future is when people decide to be the "last generation" and give up all hope for a better future.

China has been sleepwalking through this situation. Time is running out to take decisive action and change course.

Zhou Xin, South China Morning Post (SCMP) Tech Editor

This article is a translation by Asia Economy of SCMP’s column "China’s bleak demographic picture calls for decisive action from Beijing."