[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Will Ukraine's Air Defense System Be Breached by North Korean Missiles?

North Korea Receives Technical Support and Ammunition from Russia
Ukraine's Air Defense at Risk if Prolonged Conflict Continues

Russia is increasing its military support to North Korea, raising concerns in the international community. This is because if Russia utilizes North Korean missiles for an extended period, it could also suppress Ukraine's air defense systems.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to foreign media on the 23rd, recently, North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui and her delegation visited Russia. It is known that military and space cooperation were discussed during this visit. At the meeting where Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui met President Putin, a document titled "List of Observed Items in the Field of Space Technology" was spotted. The document included names of Russian space rocket companies and research facilities such as the "Progress" Space Rocket Research Institute and the "Voronezh Machine Factory."

"Progress" refers to the Russian space rocket research institute "Progress." It is a subsidiary of the Russian Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos) and a state-owned enterprise subject to U.S. sanctions. The Progress Space Center in Samara developed space launch rockets using the Soviet R-7 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and the "Zenit" reconnaissance satellite. The "Voronezh Machine Factory" refers to the "Voronezh Machine Factory," a state-owned enterprise specializing in the production of rocket engines and precision parts, particularly liquid-propellant rockets.

Choe Son-hui's Visit to Russia Likely Focused on Technology Transfer Discussions

North Korea's visit to Russia to discuss these facilities is related to rocket engine technology. The cooperation aims to collaborate in the ICBM field, which uses similar technology as satellites. Notably, the delegation accompanying Foreign Minister Choe included Jo Chun-ryong, a former head of the Military Industry Department responsible for North Korea's conventional artillery production. He is a person banned from overseas travel under the UN Security Council's 2016 sanctions resolution against North Korea and is subject to sanctions by the United States, the European Union (EU), and Japan.

The international community views North Korea as Russia's largest arms supplier. There is also analysis suggesting that the quantity supplied could sustain the Ukraine war for more than a month.

The U.S. Institute for the Study of War (ISW), based on analysis from Estonian military officials, reportedly prepared a report stating that "North Korea may have provided Russia with 300,000 to 500,000 artillery shells," according to Radio Free Asia (RFA).

North Korea's war material support appears to be using the port of Rajin. Intelligence agencies estimate that up to 1,000 containers have been sent to Russia through Rajin Port, with each container carrying 300 to 500 artillery shells. Russia currently consumes about 10,000 artillery shells per day. This suggests that the shells sent by North Korea alone could sustain bombardment for over a month. In Ukraine, Russian forces fired between 45,000 and 80,000 artillery shells per day during the summer of last year.

North Korea's illicit fuel imports, bypassing UN sanctions, are increasing. Satellite images of the Nampo area taken by the U.S. commercial satellite company Planet Labs revealed three newly constructed fuel storage facilities and five additional planned sites within three months since July, RFA reported. The total number of fuel storage facilities around Nampo Port was 32 until July, and with the completion of the three new and five additional sites, the number is expected to rise to 40.

North Korean Missile Support Threatens Ukraine's Air Defense

In addition to fuel, large vessels have been identified. At North Korea's exclusive pier in Rajin Port, a ship approximately 100 meters long is docked, and another ship of the same length is arriving consecutively. Containers loaded to a length of 100 meters are also visible in front of these ships. South Korean military authorities analyze that millions of artillery shells, including 152mm shells and 122mm rocket artillery shells, have been loaded into containers and transferred to Russia. Authorities have also identified recent support including the North Korean version of the Iskander KN-23 short-range ballistic missile and 600mm super-large rocket artillery. It is presumed that North Korea is sending newly developed weapons or test development products indiscriminately, including short-range missiles and super-large rocket artillery, which are effectively considered ballistic missiles.

The super-large rocket artillery, with a maximum range of about 380 km, flies at a low altitude of about 30 km at high speed, making it difficult to intercept on the ground. The military assesses that it is also capable of carrying tactical nuclear warheads. Additionally, the military is paying attention to the possibility that North Korea may sell the new short-range ballistic missile (CRBM), first test-fired in April 2022, to Russia. It is about 5 meters long with a range under 300 km, and if equipped with a high-explosive warhead, it can cause mass casualties or destroy buildings.

Jung Sung-hak, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, stated, "Although the UN sanctions limit the export quota of crude oil and refined oil to North Korea, the fuel storage facilities at Nampo Port are expanding. North Korea is increasing its stockpile by illegally transferring fuel at sea," he analyzed.