[Bloomberg Column] North Korea Neither Wants Unification Nor War

North Korea, Long Internationally Isolated
Kim Jong-un Changes Stance Through Close Ties with Putin
However, Burden in Case of Korean Peninsula War
Possibility of Halting Military Actions

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un recently made a surprising declaration that he would abruptly cease efforts toward reconciliation with South Korea. At the Supreme People's Assembly held on the 15th, Kim also announced plans to amend the constitution to block the possibility of unification with South Korea. It is reported that he demanded the removal of words such as 'compatriots' and 'reconciliation' from the constitution. Considering only the expressions in the existing constitution, one might have inferred that North Korea's efforts toward reconciliation and unification with South Korea had some degree of sincerity, but now it has become completely impossible.

Instead, North Korea is moving to designate South Korea as a hostile country. Kim abolished several institutions, including the Party Central Committee's United Front Department, which his father Kim Jong-il had established to manage relations with South Korea. It is evident that North Korea will proceed to suspend all economic cooperation, dialogue, and delegation exchanges with South Korea aimed at peaceful unification. Furthermore, in a recent speech, Kim harshly criticized not only South Korea but also the United States. He stated, "South Korea and the United States are conspiring to escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula." He cited as concrete evidence the joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises, the frequent appearance of U.S. nuclear submarines near the peninsula, and the increase in trilateral talks and military cooperation among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan.

It is noteworthy that South Korea's response to North Korea's change in attitude was swift and direct. President Yoon Suk-yeol defined the Kim Jong-un regime as an anti-national and anti-historical group, stating, "North Korea's fake peace tactics, which threaten us to choose between 'war' and 'peace,' no longer work."

Given the fact that the two countries on the Korean Peninsula have been divided and technically at war for 80 years, North Korea's offensive might seem like a minor issue. However, a close look at the geopolitical context surrounding the peninsula reveals that this is a very troublesome matter not only for South Korea but also for its ally, the United States.

What does North Korea's 180-degree shift in attitude mean? Does it imply that armed conflict is imminent?

Part of the reason for North Korea's change in stance is attributed to Russia. Recently, relations between North Korea and Russia have been at an all-time high. Last fall, a scene was staged where Kim boarded a train in Vladivostok for talks with President Vladimir Putin. He received a lavish welcome from the Russian side. Since then, the two countries have rapidly increased cooperation. Kim is supplying ammunition and military equipment to support Russia's armed invasion of Ukraine. In return, North Korea is expected to receive food, oil, as well as scientific information, satellites, long-range missiles, and nuclear weapons support to enhance its advanced military capabilities. With President Putin closely supporting Kim, Kim inevitably becomes bolder.

China, which has complex relations with North Korea, is not remaining idle. The Chinese government is well aware of the growing closeness between Kim and Putin. China does not want North Korea to slip out of its sphere of influence. China is likely to remain a major patron of Pyongyang while continuously calculating the risks of war on the Korean Peninsula. However, if a war breaks out due to North Korean provocations, millions of refugees could flood into China from the peninsula, which would be a headache for the Chinese government.

North Korea, which had been internationally isolated for some time, has expanded its position by gaining the protection of Russia and China for these reasons. It is expected that North Korea's previous approach of making provocative statements and missile tests to appear on the world stage and demand concessions will gain more momentum. Having been sidelined for years while Ukraine, Taiwan, and even the Middle East attracted global attention, Kim now wants to re-engage in complex global security agendas.

This is not good news for the Biden administration, which is seeking re-election this year. While Russia is strengthening its support for North Korea, the U.S. is foolishly hesitating over additional aid to Ukraine. Moreover, President Biden is fully engaged in the Middle East and is trying to maintain a solid foundation for U.S.-China relations following a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping last fall in San Francisco.

The U.S. is expected to approach the situation in a way that avoids provocative moves on the Korean Peninsula. Although South Korea-U.S. military exercises will continue, they are unlikely to increase in scale. Japan, which will have the world's third-largest defense budget by 2027, will continue to participate in joint exercises but maintain a low profile. South Korea will face pressure to increase its defense spending. North Korea, despite Western criticism, is predicted to carry out another missile test without actively responding.

The worst-case scenario is that, backed by its supporters, North Korea might resume its previous six underground nuclear tests or even conduct more provocative tests at sea. This would be a message from Kim expressing his desire to return to the international stage. Considering that North Korea experienced the disastrous failure of the 2018 North Korea-U.S. summit in Singapore and endured the world's harshest three years of COVID-19 lockdowns, this possibility cannot be ruled out.

The good news is that the North Korean dictator is almost certain to use his newfound sense of importance but refrain from military actions against South Korea. Of course, this is unfavorable for China and Russia. However, with the U.S. already involved in two wars, North Korea's actions to raise tensions on the peninsula could greatly irritate the U.S. Since it would be a significant risk for North Korea, it is unlikely to pose a threat that would destabilize the U.S.-led world order.

James Stavridis, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist

This article is a translation by Asia Economy of Bloomberg’s column 'North Korea Doesn’t Want Reunification ― or War.'