[News in War History] The World Paying Attention to Nostradamus's New Year 'War Prophecy'

The "Red Army" referred to in the prophecy... interpreted as China
Taiwan independence faction wins first presidential election... rising tension
Concerns over economic damage if Taiwan Strait blockade and fleet battle occur

The 2024 Taiwanese presidential election, the first political event of the new year that attracted global attention, concluded with the victory of Lai Ching-te from the Democratic Progressive Party, significantly escalating military tensions across the Taiwan Strait. The intensification of disputes with China under the administration of the hardline pro-Taiwan independence Lai Ching-te had already been anticipated since last year.

Amid this backdrop, notable attention is being paid to the prophecies of Nostradamus, the famous medieval French seer. His collection of prophecies includes a prediction that in 2024, a red enemy will wage war across the ocean, which has been interpreted as linked to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, drawing considerable focus. Concerns are rising that a localized conflict between China and Taiwan might indeed erupt in the Taiwan Strait.

Especially if the entire island of Taiwan or the Taiwan Strait becomes a conflict zone and the United States intervenes, Northeast Asian countries?whose critical supply lines for energy and food pass through the Taiwan Strait trade routes?are expected to suffer tremendous damage. Let us take another look at Nostradamus’s prophecy.

"The red enemy turns pale with fear"... Referring to the Chinese Communist Party?

[Image source= Xinhua News Agency]

Since early this year, Nostradamus’s prophecies have been given significant attention by major domestic and international media. Particularly, rumors about the ominous content for 2024 in his book of prophecies (Les Propheties) have sparked warnings about potential global hardships.

According to CNN, Nostradamus’s 1555 book of prophecies includes predictions for 2024 such as "the dry land will become drier and great floods will occur" and "a plague will spread, causing severe famine." Coincidentally, scientific forecasts predict this year to be the hottest in 125,000 years due to climate anomalies, and with COVID-19 still circulating in some countries alongside various respiratory viruses like the flu spreading worldwide, some claim these prophecies have already come true.

Among these, the prophecy concerning war has drawn even more attention. His book predicts "battles and naval warfare will occur," and states "the red enemy will turn pale with fear, terrifying the oceans." The "red enemy" is interpreted as China, which has been conducting military provocations in the Taiwan Strait, raising fears that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan might materialize this year.

Nostradamus’s book of prophecies is a work that global media revisit with interest every year-end and New Year. While it is often criticized as "interpretation over reality," it clearly reflects the international issues the world is focusing on this year.

Notably, the shift in the interpretation of the "red enemy" from primarily referring to the Soviet Union or Russia during the Cold War and early 2000s to now referring to China symbolizes changing times. China has grown into a massive economic and military power challenging U.S. hegemony, with the U.S.-China rivalry ongoing for years, and Taiwan positioned at the frontline of this power struggle.

Hardline Pro-Taiwan Independence Lai Ching-te’s Victory in the Presidential Election

The image shows President-elect Lai Ching-te and the Democratic Progressive Party leadership meeting with the U.S. delegation after the Taiwan presidential election on the 15th. [Image source=EPA·Yonhap News]

Especially after the Taiwanese presidential election on the 13th, Nostradamus’s prophecy can no longer be dismissed as mere year-end jokes. The election of Lai Ching-te, classified as a hardline pro-Taiwan independence figure, as the next president of Taiwan has dramatically heightened military tensions across the Taiwan Strait.

As a mainstream politician within the Democratic Progressive Party, Lai Ching-te is well-known for consistently advocating for Taiwan’s separation and independence from China. During the party primaries, he repeatedly pledged, "Taiwan will never become a second Hong Kong." He is recognized as a staunch anti-China figure within the pro-Taiwan independence camp, insisting that Taiwan and China should be regarded as entirely separate independent nations with no historical ties.

Shortly after the election, on the 15th, Lai Ching-te met with a delegation sent by U.S. President Joe Biden, stating, "The Taiwanese people have shown the world through their sacred vote a firm belief in democracy and freedom," and expressed hope that "the United States will continue to support Taiwan." The Chinese government, however, claims the election does not properly reflect the will of the Taiwanese people and has continued military provocations with warplanes.

Fleet Battle in the Taiwan Strait? Concerns Over Northeast Asian Economic Paralysis if Long-Term Blockade Occurs

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

Should a localized conflict break out between China and Taiwan on the island or in the Taiwan Strait, the global economy and South Korea’s economy are expected to suffer severe damage. Most importantly, Taiwan is home to TSMC, the world’s largest foundry company, and the Taiwan Strait itself is a critical trade route for raw materials and energy imports and exports for major Northeast Asian economies including China, South Korea, and Japan.

Earlier, Bloomberg Economics warned that even without a Chinese invasion of Taiwan’s main island, a blockade of the Taiwan Strait could reduce the global economic regional gross domestic product (GDP) by more than 5%. If the Taiwan Strait becomes a conflict zone like the war-torn Ukraine or the Gaza Strip in Palestine, commercial vessels may find it difficult to pass through.

Currently, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea is experiencing indiscriminate attacks on commercial ships by Yemen’s Houthi rebels. Even if normal maritime operations are only disrupted there, South Korea and Japan’s economies could suffer fatal blows. South Korea, which imports over 90% of its energy from the Middle East through the Taiwan Strait sea route, could face a matter of national survival. We sincerely hope Nostradamus’s prophecy does not come true, at least regarding this war.