Japan "Many vacant houses but no homes to live in"... Shortage of workforce for new construction

Sharp Decline in Construction Workforce Due to Population Decrease
New Builds and Remodeling Halted... "Can't Even Repair Empty Houses"

In Japan, where the population is declining every year due to the prolonged trend of low birthrates and aging, the number of vacant houses is rapidly increasing, but it is becoming difficult to find houses suitable for living, raising concerns about housing supply. This is because there is no construction workforce to rebuild or remodel vacant houses so that people can move in. Paradoxically, concerns are growing about a potential large-scale housing supply shortage crisis, deepening the Japanese authorities' worries.

On the 15th, Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei) cited a report from the private think tank Nomura Research Institute, predicting that by 2040, the supply of newly built houses in Japan will be far below demand. Although demand decreases due to population decline, supply will fall even more sharply. The institute forecasted, "By 2040, housing demand in Japan will decrease by 33% compared to 2010, but supply will plummet by 50% during the same period. There will be a phenomenon where people want to own houses but cannot find available listings."

A view of a vacant house in Japan. (Photo by Akisapo website)

The institute's report also projected, "As of 2018, there were 8.49 million vacant houses in Japan, meaning one in seven houses was vacant. By 2038, this could rise to a maximum of 23.56 million vacant houses, or one in three."

If no new construction occurs, vacant houses must be demolished and rebuilt or remodeled for reuse, but utilizing vacant houses is extremely difficult. There is a severe shortage of construction workers who can tear down vacant houses to build new ones or renovate them to a livable condition. Nikkei reported, "The number of carpenters fell below 300,000 in 2020 and is expected to drop below 100,000 by the mid-2040s," adding, "Ironically, the decline in construction workers is even greater in rural suburban areas where there are already many vacant houses."

A vacant house company in Japan is promoting properties. (Photo by Lifull Homes)

Additionally, there are predictions that the workforce required to maintain and repair essential infrastructure for construction, such as roads, will also become severely insufficient. Another think tank, Recruit Works Institute, stated, "The demand for construction labor related to infrastructure will reach 2,989,000 by 2040, but the supply will only be 2,332,000."

Shoto Furuya, a senior researcher at Recruit Works Institute, expressed concern, saying, "Even if there are houses in rural areas, it will be impossible to request repairs, and infrastructure maintenance and upkeep will be inadequate. Ultimately, this will directly restrict residential areas as people move to cities where the workforce decline is relatively moderate."

Consequently, changes are expected in the construction methods of remodeled and newly built houses in the future. Ryo Oomichi, a senior researcher at Nomura Research Institute, told Nikkei, "Going forward, rather than focusing on details, priority will be given to houses that are easy to build. Housing companies will concentrate their workforce on construction tasks that only experts can perform, while leaving minor finishing touches and light maintenance to individuals."