Election of Layingder as President from Pro-American Minjindang... US-China Conflict Likely to Deepen

In the 16th presidential election of Taiwan, which is regarded as a proxy war in the US-China hegemony battle, Lai Ching-te, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate, was elected. Hou Yu-ih, the candidate from the pro-China main opposition Kuomintang (KMT), conceded defeat as Lai Ching-te's victory became almost certain with over 90% of the votes counted.

With the DPP retaining power, Taiwan is expected to continue its pro-US and anti-China stance. However, there are also forecasts that China will intensify pressure on Taiwan, further escalating the crisis in the Taiwan Strait.

Dai Li-cheng, the elected president of Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party, is holding a press conference after his election victory.

According to Taiwan's Central Election Commission on the 13th, as of 8 p.m. local time (9 p.m. Korean time) with 94% of the votes counted, the presidential candidate Lai Ching-te and vice-presidential candidate Xiao Meiqin received 5.23 million votes, accounting for 40.34% of the vote share. Hou Yu-ih and vice-presidential candidate Chao Shao-kang of the KMT received 4.34 million votes, or 33.35%. Following these results, Hou Yu-ih conceded defeat.

On the same day, from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m., elections were held nationwide at 17,794 polling stations to elect the president and vice president as well as 113 legislators (members of the Legislative Yuan). Among Taiwan's total population of approximately 24 million, there are 19.55 million eligible voters aged 20 and above. The voter turnout was around 75%, similar to the 74.9% turnout in the previous 2020 presidential election.

With Lai Ching-te of the DPP defeating Hou Yu-ih of the KMT, the DPP will continue to govern Taiwan for a total of 12 consecutive years following the eight years of the Tsai Ing-wen administration. This marks the first time in the party's 38-year history that it has maintained power for 12 consecutive years.

Supporters gathered in front of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party election camp for the 2024 Taiwan presidential election
[Image source=Yonhap News]

The DPP is regarded as a party with an anti-China stance, holding the position that Taiwan is a sovereign state and must strengthen its defense capabilities to protect itself. It is analyzed that Taiwanese voters chose the DPP again after witnessing China's harsh crackdown on the massive pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong in 2019. Ahead of this election, China openly supported the KMT. China also threatened that if the DPP came to power, a war could break out in the Taiwan Strait, but this did not lead to a change in government.

With the election of the pro-US DPP candidate Lai Ching-te in this presidential election, the US side has gained strength in the US-China hegemony conflict. Taiwan is home to TSMC, the world's largest foundry (semiconductor contract manufacturer). For the US, which is blocking China's access to advanced technologies such as semiconductors, Taiwan holds a crucial geopolitical position. Additionally, the US can signal its continued dominance in the strategically important Taiwan Strait and the Western Pacific.

However, since Chinese authorities have previously threatened that tensions across the Taiwan Strait would escalate if Lai Ching-te were elected, tensions between Taiwan and China are expected to rise further. There is even a possibility of extreme scenarios such as a Chinese invasion of Taiwan resurfacing. The inauguration ceremony is scheduled for May 20, and there are concerns that China may conduct large-scale military demonstrations under the pretext of military exercises. There are also speculations that China might impose economic sanctions, such as suspending tax reductions or halting imports of certain products, aiming to inflict economic damage.