Analysis by Dudley Poston, Professor at Texas A&M University
"Relaxation of Son Preference Ideology Slower than Decline in Birth Rate"
"South Korea’s bachelor time bomb is about to really go off"
Due to the persistent imbalance in South Korea's birth sex ratio over the past 30 years, it is predicted that 700,000 to 800,000 unmarried men may not be able to find Korean women to marry.
On the 8th (local time), the academic journal The Conversation published an article by Dudley Poston, Professor Emeritus of Sociology at Texas A&M University, titled "South Korea’s sex imbalance is bad news for men: More men than women, bleak marriage prospects."
Professor Poston pointed to the birth sex ratios of the 1980s and 1990s as the cause. In most countries, more boys are born than girls, with a ratio of about 105 to 107 boys per 100 girls. This is an evolutionary adaptation considering the difference in mortality rates by sex, as males have higher mortality rates than females. As a result, the number of men and women roughly equalizes by reproductive age.
However, South Korea’s birth sex ratio 30 to 40 years ago far exceeded this. In fact, in 1985, South Korea’s birth sex ratio was 110 boys per 100 girls, and in 1990 it was 115 boys per 100 girls. This trend of significantly more boys being born continued until the early 2000s, before returning to the biological normal range in 2010. In 2022, the birth sex ratio was about 105 boys per 100 girls.
In addition, South Korea’s birth rate has sharply declined. The birth rate per woman was 6 in 1960, dropped to 4 in 1972, and further declined to 2 in 1984. In 2022, South Korea’s birth rate was 0.82, plunging year by year. This figure is far below the replacement fertility rate of 2.1 needed to maintain the population.
Despite the declining birth rate, the "preference for sons" persisted, causing South Korea’s gender balance to be skewed over the past 30 years, Professor Poston explained. Especially until the early 2000s, "having at least one son" was a strong desire influencing childbirth.
He stated, "Cultural preference for sons did not change as quickly as the declining birth rate. Many Koreans used technology to identify the fetus’s sex in early pregnancy and socially accepted abortion to select the child’s gender."
He added, "The surplus boys will fail to find Korean women to marry when they become adults," estimating that "due to South Korea’s birth sex ratio imbalance from 1980 to 2010, about 700,000 to 800,000 additional boys were born."
Professor Poston also noted that marriage with foreign women could be a solution. However, he pointed out, "Such a male-heavy birth sex ratio leads to problems for the nation itself," and "long-term social issues related to the marriage market will remain in South Korea for decades to come."
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