[Bitcoin Now] Up 2.81% Compared to Jeonju... Eyes on US SEC

Approval of Physical ETF Expected to Be Announced on the 10th

Bitcoin 1-Year Price Trend. Unit: KRW. Source=CoinMarketCap

The price of Bitcoin, which had plunged due to the possibility of rejection of the Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) approval, has narrowed its decline and quickly turned upward. The upcoming 10th (U.S. local time), when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to release its decision, is anticipated to be a turning point.

According to CoinMarketCap, a global virtual asset market tracking site, as of 6:44 PM on the 7th, the price of Bitcoin is trading at 57.83 million KRW, up 0.56% compared to the previous day. Compared to a week ago, it has risen 2.81%. Compared to a year ago, it is up 159.74%.

Bitcoin plunged on the night of the 3rd after speculation that the U.S. SEC might reject the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF. The price, which had surpassed 60 million KRW at the beginning of the year, dropped more than 10% intraday, threatening the psychological support level of $40,000 (52 million KRW). The price approached 59 million KRW on the 5th but returned to the 57 million KRW range on the 6th. This is interpreted as the market entering a wait-and-see stance ahead of the approval announcement.

Markus Tillen, Head of Strategy at cryptocurrency service provider Matrixport, stated in a report on the 3rd (U.S. time), "Gary Gensler, SEC Chairman, is not embracing cryptocurrencies, and expecting him to approve a spot ETF could be very difficult." He added, "Approval might happen in Q2, but we expect the SEC to reject all (spot ETF) applications in January." He forecasted that if the SEC rejects approval, Bitcoin's price could plunge 20% and fall back to $36,000?$38,000 (47 million?49 million KRW).

Earlier, the market had anticipated that the U.S. SEC would approve the Bitcoin spot ETF in January this year, as a final response to BlackRock Asset Management's Bitcoin spot ETF application is due this month. News that JP Morgan would join Jane Street and BlackRock as designated Authorized Participants (APs) for the ETF also acted as a positive factor. Currently, about 12 entities have submitted spot ETF listing approval applications to the SEC. Upon ETF listing, institutional funds such as pension funds, which previously found direct investment difficult, could flow in.

Despite growing concerns, the January theory remains strong in the market. It is expected that approval will be granted around the 10th (U.S. time) next week. On the 4th (local time), Eleanor Terrett of Fox Business reported on X (formerly Twitter) that "the SEC is meeting with exchanges such as Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) today to provide final responses to Bitcoin spot ETF applicants' submitted documents." Eric Balchunas, a Bloomberg ETF analyst, told Cointelegraph, a U.S. virtual asset specialized media, "I still expect a 90% chance of approval by January 10," adding, "If the result does not come out within two weeks, it means (the SEC) needs more time."

Sehee Kim, a researcher at Eugene Investment & Securities, said, "It has been confirmed that BlackRock requested to increase the initial ETF setup size from $100,000 to $10 million (about 13 billion KRW), and multiple issuers updated their applications reflecting the SEC's additional requests such as adding cash redemption methods, specifying fees, and designating APs and Market Makers (MM), maintaining continuous communication with the SEC." She added, "Since there have been no changes other than the Matrixport report, I maintain an optimistic stance."