[Reading Science] "If Glaciers Melt, Incheon Sea Level Rises by 4cm"

Polar Research Institute's First Precise Forecast
Subsidence Around Antarctica and Greenland
Sea Levels Rise Around the Korean Peninsula

Formation of Domestic Research Consortium
"Must Raise Awareness of Carbon Emissions"

Aerial view of the glacier in eastern Greenland taken in August last year. It shows the exposed ground as snow and ice have melted. The average temperature in the Arctic during the summer of 2023 was 6.4 degrees Celsius, the highest since weather observations began in 1900. Photo by AFP and Yonhap News.

Last December, an unseasonably severe cold wave swept across the Korean Peninsula. The situation in early January, about a month later, was the exact opposite. Temperatures soared well above the average, and fine dust was rampant. The impact of climate change is gradually eroding our lives even from distant places. A prime example is the glaciers in the polar regions. The accelerated melting of glaciers has led to rising sea levels, which could particularly affect Korea, demonstrating that climate change is an undeniable reality.

The Korea Polar Research Institute (Director Shin Hyung-chul) recently announced research findings showing that melting glaciers in the polar regions will cause the global average sea level to rise by about 3.6 cm by 2050. While 3.6 cm might seem like a minor change, researchers have a different view. Damage exceeding the breakwaters designed according to existing sea level standards could occur.

A notable aspect of this study is the prediction that if the glaciers in the polar regions continue to melt at the current rate, the sea level in Incheon by 2050 will rise about 4 cm, approximately 10% higher than the global average. This is the highest level among five major coastal cities worldwide, including New York and Sydney.

Senior Researcher Jin Kyung of the Korea Polar Research Institute explained, "It is significant that while the glaciers are melting in the polar regions, the sea level rise is observed to be higher around the Korean Peninsula rather than in the polar areas themselves."

Dr. Lee Won-sang and his research team at the Korea Polar Research Institute analyzed changes in Antarctic and Greenland glacier volumes observed by satellites since 1992 and predicted sea level changes. This is the first time a domestic research team has precisely predicted the regional impact of polar glacier loss on sea level rise.

The study found that as glaciers shrink, the sea level around Antarctica and Greenland actually decreased due to reduced gravitational attraction. Conversely, in the open ocean, the gravitational rotational deformation effect caused the sea level rise to be greater than average. This explains why the excessive sea level rise in Incheon, where the Korea Polar Research Institute is located, is more pronounced compared to Singapore, New York, Sydney, and London. The institute's analysis indicates that this phenomenon is not limited to Incheon. Other Korean coastal cities such as Busan, Mokpo, and Gangneung are expected to experience similar effects.

Researcher Jin noted that while sea level rise may be greater in the East Sea and South Sea than in the West Sea, the West Sea, with its extensive tidal flats and large coastal area, could suffer more damage from rising sea levels.

Antonio Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, visited Antarctica last November to assess the melting of glaciers caused by climate change. Secretary-General Guterres visited Antarctica to emphasize the seriousness of climate change ahead of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties. Photo by AFP and Yonhap News Agency

Dr. Lee Won-sang, head of the Glacier Environment Research Division at the Korea Polar Research Institute, also expressed concern, stating, "Mid-latitude and low-latitude coastal countries, including Korea, will be directly hit by the damage caused by sea level rise resulting from melting polar glaciers."

The research team applied statistical methods to calculate future glacier loss and assess its impact on sea level rise, considering that most glaciers lost over the past 30 years have flowed into the sea, raising sea levels. Although Antarctica and Greenland hold glaciers sufficient to raise global sea levels by 65 meters, recent glacier loss has been accelerating rapidly.

According to an analysis led by Earth scientist Edward Blanchard-Lagrange from the University of Washington, temperatures on the eastern coast of Antarctica in March last year were 39 degrees Celsius higher than the previous year. The average March temperature in Antarctica's summer is minus 54 degrees Celsius, but at that time, it was minus 15 degrees Celsius. Some researchers even took photos wearing shorts and short-sleeved clothes in Antarctica.

Meanwhile, the Korea Polar Research Institute's research team plans to expand related studies by conducting precise observations this month at the Swaits Glacier in Antarctica, one of the most vulnerable areas in the polar region.

Researcher Kim Byung-hoon of the Korea Polar Research Institute said, "This study's results represent the 'minimum' predicted sea level rise considering only polar glacier loss. If the goal of limiting temperature rise to within 1.5 degrees Celsius is not achieved, actual sea level rise could be much more severe."

In this regard, the Korea Polar Research Institute plans to form a domestic research consortium and conduct studies to determine sea level rise scenarios based on carbon emission scenarios up to the year 2300.

Researcher Jin emphasized, "The melting of the polar glaciers, the last bastion, cannot be reversed. We must have a sense of urgency to reduce carbon emissions immediately."

This research was conducted as part of the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries’ project titled "Development of Near-Future Global Sea Level Rise Prediction Technology Due to Rapid Antarctic Ice Sheet Melting."