[The Editors' Verdict] Why East Asia Has Fallen Into Low Birth Rates

Dramatic Shift in Population Policy in Just 30 Years
Confucian Patriarchal Culture Plays a Role

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) in the United States sounded a warning at the beginning of the Year of the Gapjin that China will collapse due to low birth rates. China's total fertility rate, which fell to 2.09 last year, is expected to plunge below 1.0 soon, like South Korea or Taiwan, and a chilling forecast predicts that the population will drastically decrease to 500 million by 2100. This serves as a reminder that the low birth rate issue is a serious problem not only in South Korea and Japan but also in China, once considered a populous country, showing that low birth rates are a common social issue in East Asia.

Looking at the actual statistics, the countries recording the lowest fertility rates are all located in East Asia. According to the United Nations' "World Population Prospects 2022 Report" released last year, among 238 countries worldwide as of 2021, six East Asian countries and regions are ranked within the top 10 lowest fertility rates. The rankings are: 1st Hong Kong (0.75), 2nd South Korea (0.88), 5th Singapore (1.02), 6th Macau (1.09), 7th Taiwan (1.11), and 10th China (1.16). Currently, fertility rates have fallen even more steeply.

WSJ points out that the reason East Asian countries have fallen into such a severe low birth rate problem is that population policies have changed too dramatically within less than a generation. The birth control policy, represented by China's "one-child policy," reversed 180 degrees into a low birth rate countermeasure in just 30 years, which is the root of the problem. This was a rite of passage that East Asian countries all went through during their periods of rapid growth, not just China.

Not only China but also East Asian countries were optimistic that once birth control policies were lifted, people would have many children again. However, industrialization and social structural changes over time have completely transformed people's consciousness. With individualism and single-person households becoming common, marriage and childbirth have become choices rather than obligations.

Additionally, there are criticisms that the Confucian patriarchal culture, which has continued for thousands of years, has seriously distorted the marriage market. Due to a skewed sex ratio caused by son preference, the female population has become insufficient, resulting in over 35 million lifelong bachelors in China alone. Customs that emphasize social advancement and elaborate ceremonies have caused marriage dowries to skyrocket. As a result, the number of marriages in China has halved in ten years.

Taipei Times, a Taiwanese media outlet, pointed out, "In East Asia, where children born out of wedlock are not recognized, if the number of marriages does not increase, children will not be born," and added, "Confucian culture is deepening the low birth rate."

Ultimately, the low birth rate in East Asia is the result of a reckless administrative idea that the state can control population through policy, rapid industrialization, and feudal remnants that have lasted for thousands of years all intertwined. Since multiple structural contradictions are tangled together, it is difficult to unravel the problem by focusing on just one issue.

Nevertheless, East Asian countries seem to focus solely on cash handout policies as if by agreement. They prominently promote comfortable populism that exchanges children for financial support, while somehow ignoring the structural problems hidden behind the actual low birth rate issue. As the risk of national collapse grows if reality continues to be avoided, it is now time to truly confront the structural problems.