[General Election D-99] ⑤ Casting Voter Chungcheong, Crucial to Capture Undecided Voters... Ruling Party's Generational Change Card Amid Opposition's Lead

Traditional Casting Voter Areas, Swinging Votes
Interest in Mid-level Lawmakers and 586 Nomination Results

Chungcheong has traditionally played the role of a casting voter region. The biggest variable in the Chungcheong area is how the nomination results will turn out for the incumbent senior lawmakers who make up the majority and the 86 generation (those born in the 1960s and who entered university in the 1980s) facing calls for retirement. There is a forecast that depending on the individuals, the swing voters, including moderate-leaning and undecided voters, could significantly shift their support.

Looking at the results of the 21st general election, out of 28 seats in the Chungcheong area (11 in Chungnam, 8 in Chungbuk, 7 in Daejeon, and 2 in Sejong), the Democratic Party secured 20 seats. The predecessor of the People Power Party, the United Future Party, held 8 seats. After the by-elections, the current distribution is 17 seats for the Democratic Party, 9 for the People Power Party, and 2 independents.

Under the current circumstances, analysis suggests that the People Power Party will stably secure about 10 seats and the Democratic Party about 5 seats in the Chungcheong area. The People Power Party shows strength in Cheonan Gap and Boryeong-Seocheon, while the Democratic Party is strong in Daejeon Seo-gu Gap, Sejong Gap, and Sejong Eul. Among these, Chungbuk, where the ruling and opposition parties split eight constituencies, is considered the biggest battleground. In particular, Cheongju Sangdang-gu, known as the 'number one political district in Chungbuk,' is attracting attention with People Power Party’s Jung Woo-taek, the National Assembly Deputy Speaker, seeking his sixth term, and whether former Blue House Chief Secretary Roh Young-min from the Democratic Party will run. Former Democratic Party local committee chairman Lee Kang-il has also registered as a preliminary candidate and started preparing for the general election.

However, within the People Power Party, there are calls for generational change centered on Sejong and Daejeon, which are adjacent to the metropolitan area and mainly inhabited by younger generations, as well as Eumseong, where an innovation city has been established. This is evidenced by the recent decline in People Power Party support in the Chungcheong region according to opinion polls. According to a survey conducted by the polling agency Realmeter on December 28-29 last year targeting 1,600 voters nationwide aged 18 and over, the People Power Party’s support in Daejeon, Sejong, and Chungcheong dropped by 9.8 percentage points compared to the previous survey. In contrast, during the same period, the Democratic Party’s support rose by 9.7 percentage points. (The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.) Political circles analyze that the Democratic Party’s support has increased mainly among the younger 2040 generation in the closely contested Chungcheong region.

Meanwhile, in the Gangwon region, the ruling party’s argument for national stability and the opposition’s call for regime judgment are clashing. Generally, incumbents are showing strength, creating a similar atmosphere to the 21st general election. In the 20th general election, the United Future Party (People Power Party) won 4 seats, the Democratic Party 3 seats, and independents 1 seat. However, since public sentiment is volatile, there is also an assessment that the People Power Party cannot guarantee retaining its existing constituencies in Gangwon.