Democratic Party's Heartland Honam... Fatigue Over Factional Conflicts
Ruling Party Targets Eastern Jeonnam... Lee Jung-hyun & Cheon Ha-ram
Interest in 'Lee Nak-yeon New Party' Progress
The Honam region has traditionally been a stronghold of the Democratic Party of Korea. However, since the launch of the Yoon Seok-yeol administration, intense confrontation between the ruling and opposition parties, factional conflicts within the Democratic Party, and the establishment of the 'Lee Nak-yeon New Party' have caused continuous noise, cracking the voter sentiment toward the Democratic Party.
The People Power Party aims to capitalize on these cracks and secure at least one seat in each metropolitan unit in Honam. In response, the Democratic Party is determined to achieve a 'clean sweep.'
In the 21st general election, the Democratic Party, riding the wave of the 'Moon Jae-in syndrome,' swept 27 out of 28 seats in the Honam region (Gwangju 8 seats, Jeonnam 10 seats, Jeonbuk 10 seats). Currently, it holds 25 seats. Lee Yong-ho, who was elected as an independent in Namwon·Imsil·Sunchang, Jeonbuk, switched his party affiliation to the People Power Party. The seat of Jeonju-eul in Jeonbuk, where a by-election was held, was taken by Kang Sung-hee of the Progressive Party. Yang Hyang-ja, who was a member of the Democratic Party in Gwangju Seo-gu-eul, left the party and founded the Korea Hope Party.
The People Power Party is closely watching the eastern part of Jeonnam, where the Democratic Party's influence is relatively weak. A major point of interest is whether Lee Jung-hyun, former Saenuri Party leader and the first People Power Party-affiliated politician to win re-election in Honam and who served as party leader, will run. It is expected that he will run in the Jeonnam Suncheon·Gwangyang·Gokseong·Gurye-eul constituency, which includes his hometown Gokseong County. Additionally, Cheon Ha-ram, former People Power Party Suncheon Gap district committee chairman who joined former leader Lee Jun-seok's 'Reform New Party,' is continuing his activities in the Suncheon area.
Whether the Democratic Party can hold its stronghold depends on the competition for innovation and the impact of the third-party forces, which are variables to watch closely. The ruling party, under the emergency committee led by Han Dong-hoon, is attempting to shift the election frame by labeling the Democratic Party as a privileged political faction of the student activist movement. However, the Democratic Party still appears unable to easily reconcile factional conflicts centered around leader Lee Jae-myung. Moreover, with the official launch of the 'Lee Nak-yeon New Party,' led by former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yeon from Yeonggwang, Jeonnam, attention is focused on how this will shake voters' hearts.
In addition, the so-called 'old boy' wave represented by Park Ji-won, Chung Dong-young, and Yoo Sung-yeop, as well as third-party new party forces such as Yang Hyang-ja, Geum Tae-seop, and Lee Jun-seok, could also be variables. There are observations that if these new party forces unite, they could cause a significant stir that cannot be ignored.
How the electoral district delimitation is decided could also throw the general election landscape into turmoil. According to the delimitation plan submitted by the National Election Commission to the National Assembly's Political Reform Special Committee, the number of seats in Jeonbuk will decrease from 10 to 9, and except for Jeonju, Iksan, and Gunsan, the remaining constituencies may be reorganized. Jeonnam will maintain 10 seats, but the eastern region will increase from 4 to 5 seats, while the central-western region will decrease from 6 to 5 seats. The Yeongam·Muam·Shinan constituency will be dissolved, and the Suncheon area will be divided into Gap and Eul districts.
Meanwhile, Jeju has also traditionally been a stronghold of the Democratic Party. From the 17th general election in 2004 to the 21st general election, spanning 20 years, the Democratic Party monopolized all three seats in Jeju Gap, Jeju Eul, and Seogwipo. Amid the ruling party's attempts to reclaim these seats, general election candidates are expected to compete for votes by focusing on economic revitalization and future growth industries in the Jeju region.
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