NIS: "High Possibility of North Korean Military Provocation Early Next Year"

North Korea conducted a launch drill of the solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) "Hwaseong-18" on the 18th, witnessed by North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un and his daughter Ju-ae, according to Korean Central TV on the 19th. Chairman Kim approved the strategic weapon launch from the central command and control center. [Korean Central TV screen] [Image source=Yonhap News]

The National Intelligence Service (NIS) announced on the 28th that it judges there is a high possibility of North Korea carrying out military provocations in early next year. In particular, it has been understood that Chairman Kim Jong-un has instructed his close aides to prepare measures that would cause a significant impact on South Korea in early next year.

In a press release on the same day, the NIS explained that there is a possibility of North Korea's military provocations in early next year and that it is making thorough preparations for early warning and readiness.

According to the NIS, North Korea consecutively carried out nuclear tests (January 6), drone incursions (January 13), Taepodong missile launches (February 7), and GPS jamming (March 31) ahead of the 2016 20th general election.

Also, just before the 2020 21st general election, North Korea launched short-range ballistic missiles, tactical weapons aimed at the South, four times in succession during March.

The NIS analyzed, "North Korea is highly likely to suddenly carry out unexpected military and cyber provocations during the political turbulence of 2024, when our general election and the U.S. presidential election take place."

In fact, North Korea appointed Kim Yong-chol, who led the Cheonan and Yeonpyeong Island provocations, as an adviser to the United Front Department in June, and appointed Ri Yong-gil and Pak Jong-chon, who directed the DMZ landmine provocations, as Chief of the General Staff and Director of the Military Guidance Department respectively in August.

In particular, North Korea conducted its first all-army command training in August aimed at occupying South Korea, stating that "we will not hesitate to strike our civilian facilities to cause social and political chaos."

At the Party plenary meeting the day before, Kim Jong-un announced a "programmatic conclusion on the direction of next year's struggle," instructing to accelerate the completion of war preparations in the military, military supplies, nuclear weapons, and civil defense sectors.

According to the NIS, after the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch on the 18th, Kim Jong-un declared that North Korea would "respond more evolvedly and threateningly" toward South Korea and the United States, and instructed his close aides to "prepare measures that could cause a significant impact on South Korea in early next year."

The NIS stated, "Considering North Korea's past behavior and the recent level of its threats toward the South, provocations from North Korea are expected early next year, so we are making thorough preparations for early warning and readiness in cooperation with related ministries."