'Cabinet Reshuffle Focused Solely on General Election' Concerns Raised, Starting with Foreign and Security Reorganization
Changes in Foreign Minister and NIS Director Amid Jo Tae-yong's Position... Foreign Minister Jang Ho-jin Mentioned
Growing Role of Han Dong-hoon Sparks Interest in Timing of His Appearance... Deepening Concerns in the Presidential Office
President Yoon Suk-yeol will complete the reorganization of the diplomatic and security line this week. With next year's general election coinciding with a major reshuffle of the presidential office and cabinet, there is a judgment that delaying the timing of the diplomatic and security line replacement any further could lead to being swayed by the opposition's frame of a 'cabinet reshuffle for the general election.' The presidential office is reportedly deeply considering the timing of the replacement of Minister of Justice Han Dong-hoon, whose 'general election role theory' is being discussed.
According to the presidential office and political circles on the 18th, the government’s top appointments for the diplomatic and security line will be announced this week. A presidential office official said, "The verification of candidates (personnel screening) has practically been completed, but it seems difficult to place the 'right person' who will lead the implementation of national tasks and the national policy direction," adding that only the 'puzzle fitting' by the president, who is the final appointing authority, remains.
At present, it appears that the replacement of the diplomatic and security line, including the Minister of Foreign Affairs, the Director of the National Security Office, and the Director of the National Intelligence Service, will take priority. For the successor to Foreign Minister Park Jin, who is highly likely to run in the general election, former Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Cho Tae-yeol and First Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Jang Ho-jin are being mentioned. Former Vice Minister Cho is a multilateral and trade diplomacy expert who has served as the Director-General for Trade Negotiations and Ambassador to the United Nations, while Vice Minister Jang has been recognized for his capabilities through his roles as Director-General of the North American Affairs Bureau at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Foreign Affairs Secretary at the Blue House, and as the current government’s first Ambassador to Russia.
The key variable is the whereabouts of Cho Tae-yong, Director of the National Security Office, who is strongly considered for the position of Director of the National Intelligence Service. Amid internal issues at the National Intelligence Service, including personnel turmoil that led to the dismissal of former Director Kim Kyu-hyun, there is speculation that Director Cho, who has President Yoon’s strong trust, may take charge of the National Intelligence Service and lead the organization. In this case, the likely scenario is that former Vice Minister Cho will be appointed as the new Director of the National Security Office, and Vice Minister Jang will be assigned as the new Minister of Foreign Affairs. For the vacant position of Director of the National Security Office due to Director Cho’s move, Lee Yong-jun, Chairman of the Sejong Institute, is being mentioned.
Government agencies such as the Ministry of Employment and Labor, Ministry of Science and ICT, and Financial Services Commission, which were not included in the first round of cabinet reshuffles, have also been considered, but it is known that the prevailing view within the presidential office is that the replacement of the diplomatic line, which urgently manages current issues such as North Korea and economic security, should take precedence. The day before, the presidential office carried out a one-point reshuffle by nominating Ahn Deok-geun, Head of the Trade Negotiation Headquarters, as the candidate for Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy. For the Minister of Employment and Labor, Professor Cho Jun-mo of Sungkyunkwan University’s Department of Economics, and for the Minister of Science and ICT, Lee Yong-hoon, President of Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, and Yoo Ji-sang, former President of Kwangwoon University, are being mentioned as potential candidates.
The appointment of Minister Han Dong-hoon, who could have a dramatic effect in the major axis of 'general election and cabinet reshuffle,' seems to be moving forward slightly faster. Initially, there was a strong possibility of a 'one-point' reshuffle around the end of the year or early next year, but as the 'general election role' sentiment within the party has increased, the timing of his appointment is being adjusted. Moreover, after the resignation of former People Power Party leader Kim Ki-hyun, the opinion that Minister Han should be appointed as the emergency committee chairman to manage the party crisis has gained momentum, adding a variable to the cabinet reshuffle itself.
However, it appears that the presidential office faces considerable pressure. In a situation where the elimination of the 'vertical party-government relationship' is an urgent task for the renewal of the presidential office and the ruling party, there is ongoing debate about whether it is appropriate for President Yoon to send a cabinet member as the right person to lead the 'temporary party leadership.' Although Minister Han has high recognition among the younger generation and broad popularity within the ruling party’s support base, as well as strong combat power against the opposition, there is concern that if the 'president’s closest aide' leads the general election, it may limit the message of renewal conveyed to the public. Among the ruling party mainstream, there is a consensus on nominating Minister Han as the emergency committee chairman, while Kim Han-gil, Chairman of the National Integration Committee, and Won Hee-ryong, Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, are still mentioned as candidates. A presidential office official was reserved about the appointment of the Minister of Justice, saying, "The party is collecting various opinions, so we will take a closer look and have an opportunity to speak later."
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