[Good Morning Stock Market] "CPI Meets Expectations" US Stock Market Closes Higher... KOSPI Expected to Start Upward

As the U.S. stock market closed higher on expectations of disinflation (slowing inflation) and a soft economic landing, the KOSPI is expected to start higher on the 13th.

On the 12th (local time) at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 173.01 points (0.48%) at 36,577.94. The S&P 500 rose 21.26 points (0.46%) to 4,643.70, and the Nasdaq closed at 14,533.40, up 100.91 points (0.70%).

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

The stock price rise was driven by the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which met expectations a day before the announcement of the final Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) results of the year. Last month's CPI rose 3.1% compared to the same period last year, matching expert forecasts. This was lower than the 3.2% increase in October, continuing the trend of slowing inflation.

Seokhwan Kim, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, said, "Investor sentiment improved thanks to positive remarks by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen that the U.S. economy is experiencing a soft landing, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond auction closing with strong demand," adding, "Subsequently, the rise was further extended by a weaker dollar and falling Treasury yields."

Among the S&P 500 sectors, eight sectors excluding energy, real estate, and utilities all rose. Among major stocks, Apple (0.79%), Amazon.com (1.09%), Meta (2.75%), and Nvidia (2.21%) increased, but Alphabet (-0.58%) and Tesla (-1.14%) declined, showing mixed trends among big tech stocks. International oil prices fell, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil dropping below $70 per barrel, and ExxonMobil (-1.6%) hit a 52-week low.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Korea Index Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) and MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF rose 0.54% and 0.03%, respectively. Eurex KOSPI 200 futures fell 0.01%. The KOSPI is expected to start up 0.2% to 0.4%.

Jiyoung Han and Seonghoon Lee, researchers at Kiwoom Securities, said, "The domestic stock market closed higher the previous day, with foreign investors net buying futures and options ahead of the simultaneous expiration day, and leading sectors such as semiconductors and materials, parts, and equipment (SoBuJang) showing strength." They added, "Following a strong U.S. stock market and a weaker dollar, the market is expected to start higher but show a neutral price trend during the day due to cautious sentiment ahead of the FOMC."

They also noted, "Considering Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Choo Kyung-ho's remarks after the domestic market close the previous day that 'there is no concrete plan to ease the major shareholder capital gains tax criteria,' this should be reflected in the market response strategy today." They added, "Ultimately, short-term volatility in supply and demand should be expected, especially in sectors or themes such as secondary batteries, robotics, and entertainment, which have seen concentrated individual investor demand and high price gains throughout the year."

Meanwhile, the one-month Non-Deliverable Forward (NDF) won-dollar exchange rate in New York was 1,309.2 won, reflecting an expected 6 won decline at the start of the won-dollar exchange rate.