Maintaining the Size of USFK... For North Korea or for Deterrence? [Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club]

US Congress Senate and House to Release Next Year's National Defense Authorization Act
Maintaining USFK Troop Strength at 28,500

The United States has decided to maintain the size of its forces stationed in South Korea. While this is seen as part of the deterrence against North Korea based on the South Korea-U.S. alliance, there are also prospects that the U.S. may use the Korean Peninsula to check neighboring countries.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The U.S. Congress, both the Senate and the House of Representatives, released the '2024 Fiscal Year National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) unified bill.' This unified bill, which contains next year's U.S. defense-related budget, includes key provisions to maintain the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) at approximately 28,500 personnel at the current level and to strengthen extended deterrence toward South Korea by utilizing all U.S. defense capabilities. 'Extended deterrence' refers to a policy where the U.S. provides deterrence to its allies by operating military capabilities across all categories, including nuclear, conventional, and missile defense. The language related to the Washington Declaration was first included in the House bill passed in July but was absent in the Senate version; however, it has now been incorporated into the unified Senate-House bill.

▲Can USFK be deployed to neighboring countries in case of emergency?= The core mission of USFK is to be stationed on the Korean Peninsula to defend the Republic of Korea from threats posed by North Korea. However, there is an observation that the primary purpose is to enhance strategic flexibility of USFK to check China and others.

USFK Conducts Joint Exercises with Countries Surrounding the Korean Peninsula

In July, a fighter unit under the U.S. 7th Air Force stationed in Osan, Gyeonggi Province, participated in a maritime blockade operation in Vietnam. On the 6th of this month, the U.S. 7th Air Force conducted a bilateral joint exercise called 'Commando Sling' with the Singapore Air Force at Paya Lebar Air Base in Singapore. The exercise involved six F-16 'Fighting Falcon' fighters from the 51st Fighter Wing of the 7th Air Force, pilots, and 90 maintenance personnel from the 36th Fighter Squadron. While it is routine for USFK to conduct joint exercises with the South Korean military on the Korean Peninsula, participation in joint exercises conducted in third countries outside the peninsula is unusual.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Some speculate that USFK could be immediately deployed if neighboring countries around the Korean Peninsula become embroiled in conflicts. There is also a legal basis for this. The top command authority of USFK is the U.S. President. After the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, the Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) was passed, allowing the President to unilaterally decide on military operations. South Korea's diplomatic authorities also agreed on USFK's strategic flexibility in 2006. Based on this, the U.S. stated in the 'Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR)' announced in February 2010 that "once the service conditions of USFK are normalized, available forces will be deployed overseas." The QDR serves as a blueprint for future U.S. defense policy and effectively provides a legal basis for deploying USFK as a rapid deployment force to neighboring countries.

U.S. President Holds Top Command Authority over USFK

Some express concerns that if the U.S. military conducts operations outside the Korean Peninsula in emergencies, the peninsula could be used as a launch or rear support base, potentially dragging South Korea into international conflicts. If a clash occurs in the Taiwan Strait, a flashpoint in U.S.-China tensions, USFK forces might move near Taiwan, and North Korea could misjudge this as a weakening of the U.S. security commitment to South Korea and provoke military provocations.

In response, a military official emphasized, "Since the joint statement released immediately after the 55th Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) this year included the phrase 'to continuously maintain the current level of USFK forces to defend the Republic of Korea,' the commitment of USFK to defend South Korea is ironclad."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Image source=Yonhap News]

▲Are U.S. strategic weapons on the Korean Peninsula also for deployment purposes?= Military authorities state that this year, the U.S. has solidified its extended deterrence commitment to the Korean Peninsula by deploying strategic assets and conducting combined air exercises with South Korea nine times.

According to the Ministry of National Defense, the South Korea-U.S. combined forces have conducted a total of five joint air exercises this year involving the U.S. Air Force's strategic bomber B-52H 'Stratofortress,' which is capable of carrying nuclear weapons, over the Korean Peninsula and its surrounding airspace. The first flight over the peninsula this year was on March 6. Subsequently, after North Korea revealed the tactical nuclear warhead 'Hwaseon-31' through state media, the B-52H flew back to South Korea on April 5 as a response.

Increased Deployment of U.S. Strategic Weapons to the Korean Peninsula for North Korea Deterrence

The B-52H also deployed over the Korean Peninsula the day after North Korea conducted test launches of the solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) 'Hwaseong-18' on April 13 and July 13, and conducted joint exercises with the South Korean Air Force on June 30. In October, after performing a celebratory flight over Seoul Air Base in Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province, for the opening ceremony of the 'Seoul International Aerospace and Defense Exhibition' (Seoul ADEX), the B-52H landed at a South Korean Air Force base (Cheongju Air Base) for the first time ever. Following this, on the 22nd of last month, a trilateral air exercise involving South Korea, the U.S., and Japan's Self-Defense Forces was conducted for the first time over airspace near the Korean Peninsula.

Additionally, the nuclear-powered cruise missile submarine 'Michigan' and the nuclear-powered aircraft carriers 'Nimitz' and 'Ronald Reagan' each visited South Korea once, and U.S. stealth fighters F-22 and F-35 were deployed once each. The B-1B strategic bomber operated by the U.S. Air Force also deployed over the Korean Peninsula five times to conduct combined air exercises with South Korea.

Regarding this, a military official said, "We are preparing to implement the Washington Declaration to ensure that U.S. extended deterrence remains firm after next year's U.S. presidential election," adding, "South Korea and the U.S. will conduct various exercises to achieve the core mission of USFK."