Opposition Loses 2 Constituencies
PM Modi's Popularity Confirmed... "Market Activity Expected"
The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) achieved an unprecedented landslide victory in the Indian local elections. With the general election scheduled for next year just about six months away, BJP's major win in opposition strongholds has sparked widespread speculation that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 'third term' in power is becoming a reality.
According to local media such as the Times of India (TOI) on the 3rd (local time), the Election Commission of India announced the counting results of local elections in four states on the same day. BJP secured a landslide victory in three states: northern Rajasthan, central Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. BJP also won more than 50% of the seats in the assemblies of these three states. Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh were originally opposition strongholds.
India's main opposition party, the Indian National Congress (INC), won the southern state of Telangana but lost two previously governed regions to BJP, leading to an assessment that it was defeated in this local election. Recently, INC formed an alliance of 28 opposition parties to oppose Prime Minister Modi and the BJP. Initial opinion polls and exit polls had predicted a close contest between BJP and INC, but contrary to expectations, BJP achieved a landslide victory.
This local election result is particularly noteworthy because it precedes the Indian general election scheduled for April-May next year. Held every five years, the Indian general election is considered the largest election in the world. Especially, next year's election is seen as a crucial vote determining whether Prime Minister Modi, who has been in power since 2014, will secure a third term.
Foreign media have evaluated that the ruling party's landslide victory in the local elections just six months before the general election has strengthened Modi's path to a third term. With 160 million voters in the four states?accounting for one-sixth of the total electorate?this can be regarded as a 'mini general election,' and BJP has gained the upper hand.
Sumita Debshwar, Senior Economist for India at GlobalData TS Lombard, told Bloomberg News, "Prime Minister Modi is especially more popular," and described the election results as "the entire country is rallying behind his third term."
Some even attribute BJP's landslide victory to Modi's popularity. BJP had previously lost to INC in Karnataka, a major southern state, in May. Since then, party leaders and Modi himself toured across India for weeks to appeal for support. Within BJP, the term 'Modi Magic' has even been used to describe this election victory.
Bloomberg and others predict that the market will become more vibrant as Modi's third term becomes more visible with this local election victory. Since Modi has emphasized India's economic growth as a core policy, it is expected that capital will flow into India. The Modi government and BJP are predicted to focus on promoting welfare and economic development policies ahead of next year's general election.
Seemingly aware of this, after the announcement of the local election results, Modi addressed party members at the BJP headquarters in New Delhi, saying, "The reverberations of this election result will be heard worldwide," and emphasized, "This result will strengthen the world's confidence in India's development and create new trust among global investors."
Meanwhile, the vote counting for Mizoram state, which held local elections along with the four regions last month, is scheduled for the 4th.
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