[General Election Compass] Kim Gi-hyeon and Lee Jae-myung... Uncertain Commanders for Next Year's General Election

Kim Gi-hyeon, People Power Party Leader Approval Rating 26%
Lee Jae-myung, Democratic Party Leader Approval Rating 31%
Two Leaders Ignored by Independent and Moderate Voters

Editor's NoteOpinion polls are a barometer that can gauge public sentiment. They reveal the flow of public opinion on everything from the president's governance to each party's principles and policies, as well as political and social issues. This is why the political world, where the 'power map' changes through elections, sometimes cries and sometimes laughs over opinion poll indicators. [Election Compass] is a series that examines the flow of public opinion based on the weekly flood of opinion poll data ahead of next year's general election, helping readers interpret the hidden public sentiment behind the numbers.

With next year's general election approaching, both the ruling and opposition parties have begun full-scale election preparations. As there are numerous tasks to be addressed, from launching nomination planning teams and recruiting talent to revising nomination rules and election laws, the leadership of the party leaders is more important than ever. However, the 'reality' of the ruling and opposition party leaders confirmed by opinion polls shows limitations in expanding the centrist and non-affiliated voter base.

According to Gallup, an opinion polling agency, in a poll released on the 24th (conducted nationwide from the 21st to 23rd among 1,001 adults aged 18 and over; for detailed information, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission), the evaluation of the party leaders was 26% for Representative Kim and 31% for Representative Lee.

When asked whether "the People Power Party leader is doing well as the party leader," 61% responded negatively. Even among People Power Party supporters, only 46% said he was doing well. Representative Lee showed a similar pattern. Public opinion that Lee is not performing well as party leader was 60%. At least 60% of Democratic Party supporters evaluated Lee as performing well in his duties.

This positive evaluation of the two party leaders is even lower than their parties' approval ratings. At the time of the survey, the People Power Party had a support rate of 33%, and the Democratic Party had 35%.

What draws attention is that those without party affiliation (non-affiliated voters) or those who identify as centrists showed a 'strong aversion' toward both party leaders. Among the non-affiliated voters, who make up 27% of all respondents, only 18% said Representative Kim was doing well, while 52% said he was doing poorly. The refusal to respond was also high at 25%. Among centrists, who account for 31% of respondents, only 18% said Representative Kim was doing well as party leader, while 67% said he was doing poorly. For Representative Lee, only 20% of non-affiliated voters said he was doing well, while 61% said he was doing poorly. About 29% of centrist respondents said he was doing well (60% said poorly).

Since the votes of non-affiliated and centrist voters are considered the casting vote that will determine the outcome of next year's general election, the current ruling and opposition leadership is expected to face increased concern. Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University's Department of Political Science and Diplomacy said, "Gallup's opinion poll shows that both party leaders are not responding well to public opinion," adding, "Inyo Han, the Innovation Committee Chair of the People Power Party, received a 42% approval rating in this poll. Both party leaders need to reflect on public opinion."

Experts point out that to win the support of non-affiliated and centrist voters, a card that can complement the party leader, who is the face of the party, is necessary. They especially noted that next year's general election nominations could become a test of the party leaders' leadership crisis. Political commentator Park Sang-byeong warned, "Since Representative Lee has completely taken control of the Democratic Party, it is difficult for those opposing Lee to receive nominations," but added, "If the nomination management committee ends up nominating pro-Lee candidates and rejecting anti-Lee candidates, it could lead to calls for splitting the party." Depending on the nomination results, the hearts of centrist and non-affiliated voters could either be won over or driven further away.