[Good Morning Stock Market] "US Big Tech Stock Prices Mixed... KOSPI Gains Limited"

A trader is working at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in the United States. [Photo by Yonhap News]

On the 23rd, the Korean stock market is expected to show a differentiated sectoral trend with limited upside. Although the U.S. stock market closed higher on the 22nd (local time), major U.S. big tech stocks such as Microsoft (MS) and Nvidia showed mixed price movements.

On the previous day (local time) at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 35,273.03, up 184.74 points (0.53%) from the previous session. The S&P 500 index ended at 4,556.62, up 18.43 points (0.41%), and the Nasdaq index closed at 14,265.86, rising 65.88 points (0.46%).

The weekly initial jobless claims in the U.S. came in at 209,000 (expected 225,000, previous week 233,000), falling short of expectations. For two consecutive weeks, continuing claims recorded 1.84 million (expected 1.875 million, previous week 1.862 million), marking a decrease for the first time in eight weeks. Although the pace of labor market slowdown has eased, some analysts suggest this is because workers maintained atypical employment ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.

The actual claims before seasonal adjustment rose to the highest level since summer. Jobless claims reflect the layoff trends of U.S. companies. Therefore, the decrease in claims is interpreted as a sign that the U.S. economy and labor market remain resilient. It is one of the indicators influencing whether the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will raise the benchmark interest rate on the 31st.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November was 61.3 (expected 60.4, previous month 63.8), exceeding expectations but declining for the fourth consecutive month. The 1-year expected inflation rose to 4.5% (expected 4.4%, previous month 4.2%), and the 5-year expected inflation increased to 3.2% (expected 3.2%, previous month 3.0%). This has led to interpretations that although recent consumer prices are slowing down, consumers are concerned that prices will soon rise.

The market expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to shift its monetary policy next year. The key issue is not the entry into a recession but the severity of the recession.

Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, forecasted, "Unlike previous recession entry points, considering the relatively favorable labor market and the sequential momentum recovery in other major countries such as Europe and China, the likelihood of the U.S. entering a shallow recession rather than a deep one is high." She added, "From the stock market perspective, even if the U.S. falls into a recession, it is necessary to avoid expanding conservative positions on stocks as was done in previous recessions."

Recently, the domestic stock market has shown price recovery resilience, but no short-term leading sectors have emerged. This is due to the momentum lull during earnings season, increased volatility in supply and demand, and noise surrounding the U.S. economy.

The researcher analyzed, "The rapid rotation among top-performing sectors recently is making it difficult to outperform benchmark indices. Ultimately, since sector-based responses are also challenging, it is necessary to respond with individual stocks within sectors." He advised, "Considering the potential release of major shareholder capital gains tax volumes at year-end, a favorable foreign investor supply environment, and export indicator improvements until November 20, maintaining a weighting in large export stocks until the end of the year is also an alternative."