[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Satellite Launch Countdown... Likely This Week

Launch on the First Day of the Notice Period in the Last Two Launches as Well

North Korea has announced the launch of a military reconnaissance satellite, and the launch is likely to take place this week. North Korea notified the Japanese government that it would launch a satellite between the 22nd of this month and the 1st of next month, and it has usually launched early in the announced period.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 21st, North Korea sent an email to the Maritime Information Department of the Japan Coast Guard to notify them of the launch period. North Korea's notification of its satellite launch plan to Japan is due to the Worldwide Navigational Warning Service (WWNWS), which operates under the resolution of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) General Assembly. Japan is the coordinating country for the NAVAREA XI zone, which includes both South Korea and North Korea. North Korea also notified Japan and the IMO of the launch period in May and August. The IMO requires member countries to notify in advance when conducting military exercises or other activities that may affect navigational safety.

US Aircraft Carrier Carl Vinson Visits Port for First Time in 6 Years

The danger zones where debris may fall are two areas in the West Sea southwest of North Korea and one area in the Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines, all outside Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). These are the same drop zones North Korea announced in May and August, indicating the plan is for a military reconnaissance satellite launch. Japan also noted that the danger zones notified this time are the same as those notified in August, and if the satellite is launched, it is expected to pass over Okinawa Prefecture.

Our government also issued a navigational warning. The Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries issued a navigational warning through the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency following North Korea's notification of its satellite launch plan to the Japanese government.

Meanwhile, the US Navy's nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Carl Vinson (CVN-70) arrived in Busan on the same day. This is the first visit of the Carl Vinson to South Korea in six years since 2017. The Carl Vinson completed the annual multilateral joint naval exercise (ANNUALEX) with the navies of Australia, Canada, and the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, which was held in the Philippine Sea since the 11th, and arrived at the Republic of Korea Navy's Busan operational base that morning.

Possibility of Deploying Strategic Bombers if North Korea Launches Satellite

The visit of the US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to South Korea comes about a month after the USS Ronald Reagan's visit on the 12th of last month. The Carl Vinson was the first US aircraft carrier to deploy the Navy variant (F-35C) of the US military's fifth-generation multi-role stealth fighter F-35 Lightning II as its main carrier-based aircraft in August 2021. Our military operates the Air Force variant F-35A developed by Lockheed Martin, and the Marine Corps variant F-35B is currently rotationally deployed at US bases in Japan.

The frequent deployment of US aircraft carriers to the Korean Peninsula is interpreted as an intention to demonstrate the US's extended deterrence capability against North Korea's nuclear and missile threats. Inside and outside the military, there are also speculations that since the Carl Vinson recently conducted live exercises, joint exercises could be held if North Korea launches a military reconnaissance satellite. There is also a high possibility that other US strategic assets, such as strategic bombers, could be deployed to the Korean Peninsula.

A military official said, "We are monitoring related developments, as North Korea is likely to attempt to launch a reconnaissance satellite as early as this week."