New York Stock Market Rises Early Ahead of Thanksgiving Holiday

The major indices of the U.S. New York stock market are showing an early upward trend on Monday, the 20th (local time), ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday this week.

At 11:03 a.m. at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading at around 35,044, up 0.28% from the previous close. The S&P 500, which focuses on large-cap stocks, is up 0.42% at 4,533, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq is up 0.72% at 14,227.

Within the S&P 500, all sectors except utilities, consumer staples, and financials are rising in unison. Microsoft (MS) is up more than 1% following news that Sam Altman, who was previously dismissed from OpenAI, has joined. Boeing jumped more than 3% after Deutsche Bank upgraded its investment rating from 'hold' to 'buy.' Nvidia, which is set to report earnings this week, is also up nearly 1%. Other semiconductor stocks such as Intel and AMD are also rising by around 1%.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

This week, the market is scheduled to be closed on the 23rd for Thanksgiving and will close early on the 24th. Typically, trading hours are shortened during the Thanksgiving holiday week, which tends to increase volatility. The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, to be released during the week, and earnings from Nvidia, a leading AI stock, are expected to act as market catalysts. Earlier, inflation indicators showed a clear easing trend, raising expectations that the Fed's rate hikes have ended and that rate cuts may begin next year.

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, as of this morning, the federal funds futures market reflects a 99.8% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady at 5.25-5.5% at the next meeting in December. The probability that rates will remain unchanged through January is 97.8%. The likelihood of the Fed cutting rates by May next year is approaching 60%.

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for October, released today, fell 0.8% month-over-month, raising concerns about a recession. This marks the 19th consecutive month of decline. The figure is worse than both the previous month and market expectations. Previously, the Leading Economic Index also showed a 19-month consecutive decline during the global financial crisis from late 2007 to 2009.

Jamie Cox, Managing Director at Harris Financial Group, said, "The market has begun to believe that the Fed has finished raising rates," adding, "Investors are watching closely for when rate cuts will occur, and I believe it will be sooner than generally perceived. This is the background behind the recent market stability." Richard Hunter, Head of Markets at Interactive Investor, also said, "Recent inflation data strongly supports the view that the rate hike cycle is over and has strengthened hopes that the Fed can achieve a soft landing for the economy."

Additionally, Nvidia's earnings report, to be released after the market close on the 21st, is considered a major catalyst that could influence market sentiment. Wall Street expects Nvidia's Q3 earnings per share to have surged to $3.37 year-over-year. Nvidia's stock price has risen more than 200% so far this year.

In the New York bond market today, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is trading around 4.46%, and the 2-year yield is around 4.91%. The dollar index, which measures the value of the U.S. dollar against six major currencies, is down 0.4% from the previous close, standing at 103.4.

European markets are mixed. Germany's DAX and the UK's FTSE are trading slightly lower, while France's CAC is up 0.19%.