President Joe Biden, the oldest president in U.S. history, is trailing former President Donald Trump, his 'rival,' in all major recent polls ahead of his 81st birthday. This is an unusual result considering the incumbent president's advantage in seeking re-election next year. Concerns about President Biden's age and health are particularly high in battleground states. There are also assessments that Biden's foreign and economic policies, which have come under renewed scrutiny due to the Israel-Hamas war, are the causes.
According to a poll released on the 19th (local time) by NBC News, President Biden received only 44% support in a hypothetical presidential race against former President Trump. Although within the margin of error (±3.1%), this is the first time in the same poll that former President Trump (46%) has led President Biden. In a previous September poll, both received 46% support, and in June, President Biden was ahead (49% to 45%).
NBC News stated, "Former President Trump has surpassed President Biden for the first time in history," citing divisions within the Democratic Party following the recent Israel-Hamas war and the Biden administration's foreign policy as the background. In this poll conducted from the 10th to the 14th of this month with 1,000 U.S. voters, only 33% of respondents supported President Biden's foreign policy. This is 8 percentage points lower than the September poll. President Biden's overall approval rating also dropped to 40%, matching the lowest in history.
About a year before the presidential election, President Biden is trailing former President Trump in all other U.S. polls as well. The day before, CNN reported that in five recent polls by CBS News-YouGov, CNN-SSRS, Fox News, Marquette University Law School, and Quinnipiac University, former President Trump's support led President Biden by 2 to 4 percentage points.
In most polls released about a year before the U.S. presidential election over the past 80 years, the incumbent president has led other competitors by an average of more than 10 percentage points. CNN noted that almost all incumbent presidents since Franklin Roosevelt in 1943 are included in this trend, stating, "Former President Trump currently holds a small but clear lead over President Biden." This trend is also confirmed in battleground states such as Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, which can determine the election outcome.
CNN analyzed that while the division within the Democratic Party related to the Israel-Hamas war may be a factor behind President Biden trailing former President Trump in hypothetical matchups, economic and age issues are bigger factors. President Biden is about to turn 81 the next day.
In a poll conducted by Yahoo-YouGov from the 9th to the 13th of this month, 56% of respondents said President Biden's age would be a "big problem" in carrying out the presidency. Only 13% said it would not be a problem. In a poll released earlier this month by The New York Times and Siena College, more than seven out of ten voters in six states including Georgia and Arizona said President Biden was too old to be a competent president. In contrast, only 39% of voters considered former President Trump's age a problem, despite him being 77 years old.
Bloomberg News reported, "As President Biden celebrates his 81st birthday on the 20th, concerns about how much age will be an issue in the race against former President Trump will become more prominent," adding, "In recent major battleground state polls, President Biden has trailed former President Trump, and voters are deeply concerned about President Biden's health and mental acuity."
Meanwhile, in the Republican presidential primary, former President Trump enjoys overwhelming support, while former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is rapidly rising. In the NBC News poll released that day, former President Trump had 58% support, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 18%, and former Ambassador Haley at 13%. Haley's support nearly doubled compared to the September poll (7%). Governor DeSantis, once considered a Trump rival, appeared on CNN that day and said, "The presidency is not a job for someone over 80 years old," directly criticizing both President Biden and former President Trump.
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