[General Election Compass] Short Selling Ban a 'Storm in a Teacup'... Ruling Party's MZ Support Rate Plummets

Mega Seoul Opposed by 6 out of 10 Gyeonggi Residents
Short Selling Ban Targeting 20s and 30s...Public Opinion Negative

Editor's NoteOpinion polls are a barometer for gauging public sentiment. They reveal the flow of public opinion on everything from the president's governance to each party's platform and policies, as well as political and social issues. This is why the political world, where the 'power map' changes through elections, reacts emotionally to poll indicators. [Election Compass] is a series that examines the flow of public opinion based on the weekly flood of poll data ahead of next year's general election, helping readers interpret the hidden public sentiment behind the numbers.

The ruling party's megaton-level policy cards, such as the ambitious plan to incorporate Gimpo City in Gyeonggi Province into Seoul and the temporary ban on short selling, aimed at next year's general election, have proven to be merely a 'flash effect.' Considering the five months remaining until the election, there are concerns that these premature policy offensives could backfire.

According to the political circles on the 14th, the results of the regular opinion poll released by Realmeter the day before (conducted from the 6th to the 10th over five days nationwide targeting 2,503 adults aged 18 and over using an ARS automated response method, commissioned by Energy Economy Newspaper) showed a sharp decline in approval ratings for President Yoon Seok-yeol and the People Power Party among those in their 20s and 30s.

President Yoon's approval rating for his governance dropped by 9.4 percentage points in the 30s age group (34.1%→24.7%), and also showed a decline of 3.3 percentage points in the 20s age group (30.5%→27.2%).

Party support ratings showed a similar trend. In Realmeter's regular party support survey (commissioned by Energy Economy Newspaper, conducted on the 9th and 10th nationwide targeting 1,003 adults aged 18 and over using an ARS automated response method), support for the People Power Party among those in their 20s and 30s declined. The 30s age group saw a 4.1 percentage point drop (38.1%→34.0%), and the 20s age group experienced a 3.1 percentage point decrease (32.8%→29.7%). Across all age groups, President Yoon's approval rating stopped its two-week rising trend and fell by 2.1 percentage points. The People Power Party also halted its two-week rise and dropped by 0.7 percentage points.

After losing the Gangseo District Office election, the People Power Party consecutively introduced policies leveraging the ruling party premium. Issues such as expanding medical school quotas, incorporating Gimpo into Seoul, and banning short selling attracted public attention. However, criticism arose that these were premature election-oriented issues that were not properly prepared, leading to the spread of negative public opinion.

The ruling party's 'Mega Seoul' plan, including the incorporation of Gimpo City in Gyeonggi Province into Seoul, faced similar challenges. On the 30th of last month, Kim Ki-hyun, leader of the People Power Party, stated, "We have concluded that it is desirable to incorporate Gimpo in Gyeonggi Province into Seoul." Following the Mega Seoul controversy, the possibility of incorporating areas adjacent to Seoul was raised, drawing attention to whether public sentiment in the metropolitan area might fluctuate. However, as the opposition party pointed out, not only was there a lack of prior preparation for the policy, but opposition voices from People Power Party-affiliated metropolitan local government heads regarding regional balanced development issues also emerged, rapidly weakening the momentum of the Mega Seoul theory.

According to a poll conducted by Realmeter commissioned by Gyeonggi Province, regarding the incorporation of Gimpo and other small cities near Seoul into Seoul, 29.5% supported the idea while 66.3% opposed it. Notably, opposition was strong in areas mentioned as potential Seoul incorporation candidates, such as Gwacheon (66.3%), Gwangmyeong (50.3%), Guri (56.8%), Namyangju (69.7%), Seongnam (69.7%), and Hanam (59.7%). Even in Gimpo, where the controversy began, opposition was recorded at 61.9%.

In the National Indicator Survey (NBS), jointly conducted by four polling agencies?Embrain Public, K-Stat Research, Korea Research, and Hankook Research (conducted from the 6th to the 8th nationwide targeting 1,001 adults aged 18 and over using telephone interviews)?68% responded that the discussion about incorporating Gimpo City and others into Seoul was an "election proposal without consideration of realism." This can be seen as having a largely negative impact on public opinion both in the Gyeonggi area, including Gimpo, and nationwide. Kim Bong-shin, director of Metavoice, pointed out, "The ruling party's continuous policy moves to compensate for the loss in the Gangseo District Office by-election are a minus when looking toward the general election."

For detailed information related to opinion polls, please refer to the website of the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission.