[Population Great Earthquake] No Birth Without Structural Reform... "More Opportunities for Youth"

<In-depth Study on Low Birthrate Causes and Countermeasures>②
Youth Not Having Children, Rooted in Unequal Seniority System
"Wage Restraint for 50s Needed to Alleviate Inequality," Experts Argue
Marriage Depends on Parents' Money... Experts Say "Line Has Been Crossed"
"Policy Focused Only... Structural Reform and Grand Compromise Are More Important"

"Since I work at a bank, I see newlyweds more than anyone else (...) From what I see, it doesn't seem to be a one-to-one situation, and men still seem to bear a little more of the burden. Even when taking out jeonse loans, full loans are not granted, so men still seem to bear a bit more of the burden."

"In fact, if you don't have the seed money to find a house, it's very likely you won't even reach the stage of considering marriage. Because when you propose marriage and then say, 'Let's see how much we've saved,' and then, 'Oh? There's nothing?' in most cases, it ends right there."

"(Marriage and parenting) have so many negatives that they outweigh the positives. It's not boring, and having a partner is reassuring, but aside from that, there are other accompanying difficulties. Childbirth, in-laws, personality conflicts?putting all that aside, living together as a couple is really hard. So all my married friends tell me not to do it. They ask, 'Why bother?'"

Youth Not Having Children... Unequal Seniority-Based Wage System Created This

On the 9th, Asia Economy obtained the Ministry of Health and Welfare’s report titled “In-depth Causes and Countermeasures for Low Fertility,” which candidly reflects the public’s thoughts on marriage, childbirth, and parenting. Unfair job disparities, abnormal housing prices, the heavy burden of marriage and childbirth, the breakdown of social capital, and overheated education were identified as fundamental causes of low fertility.

Experts warned that the golden time to prevent a demographic earthquake is only 10 years left. After that, birth rate policies will no longer be effective. However, South Korea’s total fertility rate last year was 0.78, already among the lowest worldwide, and there are even forecasts it could fall below 0.7 this year. To overcome low fertility within 10 years, rather than focusing on detailed policy projects, there is growing support for urgent large-scale structural reforms.

One of the core causes of low fertility mentioned in the report is intergenerational inequality centered on employment. The domestic labor market is based on a seniority wage system where the longer you work, the greater the rewards. South Korea’s first baby boom generation, born in the late 1950s to early 1960s, enjoyed the seniority wage system the longest in regular employment, but as corporate burdens increased, this negatively affected youth job growth and wage increases.

This means that economic capacity determines marriage and childbirth, but today’s youth have had fewer opportunities to build assets. An expert involved in the study pointed out, “The generation that survived the foreign exchange crisis gained job and income stability through the seniority wage system, which may have created factors for low fertility,” adding, “There is a question whether the ‘tilted stabilization’ of certain generations and groups had an impact.”

Accordingly, there are also calls to dismantle regular employee privileges to solve the low fertility problem. The idea is that restraining wages for those over their 50s could alleviate youth unemployment and intergenerational inequality, thereby accelerating overcoming low fertility. Voices also called for changing the seniority wage system to one based on productivity and job value, and simultaneously advancing universal welfare state projects and labor market flexibility.

Without Parental Support, Marriage Is Impossible... Inequality Has "Crossed the Line"

Widening inequality within youth was also cited as a factor lowering the willingness to marry and have children. Comparing 2008 and 2018, the marriage rate of the top 10% income earners showed little change, but those in the bottom 10% saw a significant drop in marriage probability. This indicates a ‘stratification’ where marriage, childbirth, and parenting become difficult without parental support.

Experts collectively stated in their comprehensive opinion that “the degree of inequality as a qualification for marriage has crossed the line.” They particularly pointed out that it has reached a level where it is impossible to prepare housing with earned income alone. As parents intervene to help their children secure real estate, the marriage market has become rigid to the extent that people seriously consider marriage based on assets.

The report judged that housing price issues have even reduced men’s willingness to marry. Demographically, it is generally believed that women’s rising status lowers marriage and birth rates, but in South Korea, the excessive burden on men to secure housing has worsened marriage, childbirth, and parenting issues.

The still impossible environment for work-family balance was also cited as a major cause of declining birth willingness. According to the 2021 regional employment survey by Statistics Korea, 44.7% of women with career interruptions were not employed due to childbirth or child education. Although this is a slight decrease from 51.6% in 2016, half of women with career interruptions still face difficulties due to child-rearing.

The report ultimately pointed out the need to achieve a grand compromise across generations, classes, and gender sectors and create a new order that gives the youth generation more opportunities. It argued that instead of focusing solely on micro policy projects, a systemic transformation like Sweden’s ‘standard wage social compromise’ should be realized. To this end, it called for adjusting sharply divided interests by generation and class in areas such as labor and pensions, escaping confrontational gender conflict structures, and eliminating workplace discrimination based on gender and parenting.