[Tech Talk] MS's Grand Plan Creating a 'Wintel' Rift... 'Windows Based on ARM Chips'

MS 'Windows for ARM' Paves New Path
Cracks Appear in 'Wintel' Alliance After 40 Years
ARM Advances, Intel's Dominance Gradually Weakens

Semiconductor giants such as Nvidia and Qualcomm have drawn attention by announcing the development of PC central processing units (CPUs) based on the UK-based ARM architecture. While ARM's semiconductor designs have already penetrated the mobile, Internet of Things (IoT), automotive, and server markets, the PC market remains a completely different domain.

This is because the PC chip market has long been dominated by Intel and AMD CPUs based on the X86 instruction set architecture (ISA). Despite Intel's still solid monopoly, the sudden surge of ARM CPUs has its roots in Microsoft (MS).

The Origin of ARM PC Chips Lies in None Other Than MS

ARM Holdings logo, a British semiconductor design company [Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

There is one major obstacle to producing PC CPUs: almost all CPUs on Earth today run under Microsoft's Windows operating system (OS).

Naturally, Intel's X86 ISA-based CPUs, which have dominated the PC CPU market for decades, are already optimized for the Windows environment. Almost all programs running on Windows are developed with Intel CPUs as the standard.

On the other hand, for ARM ISA-based chips to run properly on Windows, significant effort and resources would need to be invested to adjust the software one by one.

Because of this, ARM's entry into the PC market was something that had been unthinkable until now. However, in 2017, MS initiated the "de-Intel" project for the first time. This was the start of developing "Windows on ARM," a version of Windows optimized specifically for ARM processors.

ARM's Rise Creates Cracks in the 40-Year Wintel Alliance

Intel's CPUs and Microsoft's Windows OS pushed out IBM in the 1980s and established themselves as the 'standard' in the global PC market. The alliance between the two companies is called 'Wintel.'
[Image source=Intel]

Why did MS invest huge resources to push this project? No matter how hard they tried, it was nearly impossible to replace all legacy software?programs built over decades around Intel's architecture.

This can be understood by looking at the intricate cooperative and competitive relationship between MS and Intel. Originally, in the early 1980s, the two companies established a new standard in the PC market with Intel handling hardware and MS handling software. Together, Windows and Intel were called "Wintel."

However, in the early 21st century, ARM emerged as the new standard in the smartphone market, while Intel remained focused on PCs and servers, gradually causing cracks in the alliance. To make matters worse, since 2018, ARM has successfully established itself in the data center chip market.

Moreover, ARM-based CPUs have now narrowed the performance gap with Intel and AMD chips. This was proven by the remarkable performance of Apple's M1 and M2 series developed for MacBooks.

MS already declared in 2020 that it would use ARM-based chips instead of Intel chips in the data center CPUs for its cloud service, Azure. This decision reflects a judgment not to maintain the shaky Intel empire and unstable alliance any longer.

Mobile, Server, and PC? ... ARM's Moat Continues to Expand

In May, ARM unveiled the DSU-120, a technology supporting an array of up to 14 CPU cores, demonstrating ARM's intention to expand beyond mobile chips into the PC market.
[Image source=ARM]

Now, the tech industry's attention is focused on ARM. ARM has already embarked on developing various technologies aimed at high-end PC chips. In May this year, ARM unveiled the next-generation CPU core design, Cortex X4, and the CPU cluster technology DSU-120 (DymaIQ Shared Unit-120).

Cortex X4 is a high-performance core perfectly suited for environments demanding performance beyond smartphones. Meanwhile, DSU-120 is a technology that can combine up to 14 ARM cores into a "large chip."

Typically, smartphone application processors (APs) are made by arranging 6 to 8 cores. Expanding this to 14 cores indicates targeting PC chip customers who require high-performance processors.

Qualcomm, which has already developed CPUs based on ARM designs, unveiled the PC chip "Snapdragon X Elite" at the "Snapdragon Summit 2023" on the 24th (local time). This chip is positioned to compete with Intel's i9-13980HX high-performance PC chip.

Nvidia, a leader in graphics processing units (GPUs) that uses ARM designs in server CPUs, has also announced plans to develop ARM PC chips. Meanwhile, MS, a key member of the Wintel alliance, has already started using ARM chips instead of Intel in its Surface tablets.

Of course, ARM chips will not immediately dismantle Intel's solid market dominance. As mentioned earlier, the legacy built up over decades of the Wintel alliance remains the biggest obstacle for ARM.

However, it is also true that ARM has begun to encircle not only mobile processors but also the server and automotive markets, and even the PC market, which no one seriously considered before. The reason for keen interest is whether ARM's economic moat?the company's ability to maintain its competitive advantage?will be broad and deep enough to surpass Intel.