[News Terms] National Greenhouse Gas Reduction Target 'NDC'

Major advanced countries such as China and the United States, which are the world's largest carbon emitters, are expected to have difficulty achieving their originally planned 'Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)' targets for greenhouse gas reduction by 2030.

NDC refers to the measures taken by each country to set and implement greenhouse gas emission reduction targets in accordance with the 'Climate Change Agreement' ratified by countries worldwide to ensure the sustainability of the Earth and humanity threatened by climate change.

At the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21) held in Paris, France, in 2015, countries resolved to set their own 2030 NDCs as an intermediate step toward achieving a 'carbon-neutral society by 2050' and to implement them. Accordingly, the United States set a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50-52% compared to 1990 levels, the EU by at least 55% compared to 1990, and Japan by 46% compared to 2013.

South Korea also submitted a target of '24.4% reduction compared to 2017' to the UNFCCC Secretariat in 2019. Later, in 2021, it submitted a more ambitious NDC of '40% reduction compared to 2018,' demonstrating a strong commitment to carbon reduction. When calculated as an average annual reduction rate from the base year to the target year, it amounts to 4.17% per year, significantly exceeding the EU's 1.98%, the United States' 2.81%, and Japan's 3.56%.

The South Korean government has set reduction targets and plans by sector, including transition, industry, buildings, transportation, agriculture/fisheries/livestock, waste, hydrogen, absorption sources, carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), and overseas reductions, and is currently implementing them. As a result, significant carbon reductions were achieved between 2018 and 2020. However, during the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, energy demand rebounded, leading to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions in 2021, prompting calls for stronger reduction policies.

There are also opinions that the reduction targets themselves are excessive. Critics argue that factors such as the manufacturing-centered industrial structure and geographical challenges that make it difficult to activate renewable energy sources like solar and wind power were not adequately considered. Since renewable energy cannot reliably supply electricity, some argue that electricity should be imported from other countries or that energy storage systems (ESS) or nuclear power plants should be utilized.

On the 24th, the Korea Economic Research Association analyzed greenhouse gas emission data from major countries and derived projections for 2030 reduction amounts, which showed a significant gap compared to the NDC targets of major countries. The combined emissions of China, the United States, India, and Russia, ranked 1st to 4th in 2021 emissions, still accounted for more than half of global emissions, interpreted as a lack of active commitment to greenhouse gas reduction. Even the UK and Germany, known as leaders in carbon neutrality, are expected to face difficulties in achieving their NDC targets. Overall, the reduction targets and projections of the Group of Twenty (G20) countries showed an average gap rate of 25.0%.