[Politics X-File] Proportional Representation 1st Place in General Election? The Winner Is Always Conservative... The Secret of the '15-Year Unbeaten Myth'

(40) Conservative Party Holding Proportional Representation No.1 Since 2008
Conservative Party Also No.1 in Proportional Representation Despite Democratic Party Landslide
Proportional Representation Voting Tendencies of Both Party Voters Also a Variable

Editor's Note"Political X-Files" is a series that delivers the "unprecedented stories" recorded in the election results and incidents of Korean politics.

The dynamism of Korean politics is no exception in the 22nd general election. With less than six months remaining until the election on April 10 next year, the election landscape remains unclear. Recent opinion polls for the general election are nothing more than reference materials.

It is difficult to say whether the election will be held with the current party structure intact. The prevailing view is that some form of political realignment will take place.

One of the interesting points to watch regarding the general election is whether the conservative parties will once again win the competition for proportional representation seats in the National Assembly. Since the 18th general election in 2008, the party that has carried on the legacy of conservative politics has never lost the position of the largest party in proportional seats.

On the 11th, the day of the by-election for the Mayor of Gangseo-gu, Seoul, voters are casting their ballots at the 9th polling station in Banghwa 1-dong, Gangseo-gu, Seoul. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

In the 18th general election in 2008, the Hannara Party (the predecessor of the People Power Party) secured 22 proportional seats, while the United Democratic Party took 15 seats. In the 19th general election in 2012, the Saenuri Party (the predecessor of the People Power Party) won 25 seats, and the Democratic United Party won 21 seats. In the 20th general election in 2016, the Saenuri Party won 17 seats, while the Democratic Party and the People's Party each secured 13 seats.

In the 21st general election in 2020, the satellite party of the then United Future Party (the predecessor of the People Power Party), the Future Korea Party, won 19 seats, and the satellite party of the Democratic Party, the Together Citizens' Party, won 17 seats.

What is noteworthy is that even in the 21st general election, where the Democratic Party won a landslide victory, the largest party in proportional seats was a conservative party. Similarly, in the 20th general election in 2016, although the Democratic Party was the largest party in the National Assembly, the Saenuri Party won the competition for proportional seats.

Conservative politics maintained the position of the largest party in proportional seats when the general election landscape was favorable, and even when it was unfavorable, it did not lose that position. How has this continued for the past 15 years?

This is closely related to the voting tendencies of Democratic Party-leaning voters in proportional representation. Even when the ruling and opposition parties fiercely competed in past general elections, many Democratic Party supporters chose differently for district and proportional representation votes. They voted for the Democratic Party in districts but gave their proportional votes to progressive or alternative parties.

On February 5, 2020, at the founding convention of the Future Korea Party held at the National Assembly, Representative Han Sun-kyo, who was elected as the party leader, is greeting Hwang Kyo-ahn, the leader of the Liberty Korea Party. / Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

This explains why in the 2020 general election, where the Democratic Party secured 180 friendly seats, the Together Citizens' Party, acting as the Democratic Party's satellite party, only won 17 seats, falling behind the Future Korea Party. Overall, Democratic-leaning proportional votes were more numerous but dispersed.

The Open Democratic Party, which emphasized a clear identity aligned with the Democratic Party, secured 3 proportional seats. The Justice Party secured 5 proportional seats. Among Democratic-leaning voters, some supported the Justice Party as an investment in the future.

Democratic Party supporters split their proportional votes among the Together Citizens' Party, the Open Democratic Party, and the Justice Party. In contrast, conservative-leaning voters concentrated their votes on the Future Korea Party. As a result, even in the last general election where conservative parties were at a disadvantage overall, they were able to maintain the top spot in proportional seats.

The same was true in the 20th general election in 2016, where the Democratic Party was the largest party in the National Assembly. Democratic-leaning voters split their proportional votes between the Democratic Party and the People's Party. Votes were also dispersed to the Justice Party. The People's Party achieved better-than-expected results by securing 13 proportional seats alongside the Democratic Party.

Lee Hae-chan, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, Lee In-young, floor leader, and Woo Hee-jong, election committee chairman of the Together Citizens' Party, are placing election winner stickers on the elected candidates at the comprehensive vote counting situation room set up in the National Assembly on April 15, 2020. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

Will conservative parties be able to maintain the top position in proportional seats in the 22nd general election next April? If so, conservative parties will continue their undefeated myth in proportional representation for 16 years since the 18th general election in 2008. This means holding the top spot in proportional seats for five consecutive general elections.

The variable is political realignment. Before every general election in the past, there has always been political realignment such as splits, mergers, or new party formations. The reason conservative parties have maintained the top spot in proportional seats is that they effectively entered the general elections as a single bloc regardless of political changes. If multiple ruling party-leaning parties emerge in the 2024 general election, a different competition for proportional representation may occur.

This could be the emergence of other parties supporting the People Power Party, such as the so-called "Lee Jun-seok new party" or "Yoo Seung-min new party," or cases where parties like the "Geum Tae-seop new party" split the ruling party's proportional votes. Another variable to watch is whether the so-called "Yoon Seok-youl new party," mentioned in some political circles, will be established. Even if new parties emerge, considering the voting style of conservative-leaning voters, there is a possibility that votes will be concentrated on a single party.

The Democratic Party has experienced the pain of splits (such as the People's Party) during general elections, and votes have been dispersed due to the proportional voting tendencies of Democratic-leaning voters. It remains to be seen whether new parties like the so-called "Lee Nak-yeon new party" will emerge within the Democratic Party. Another point to watch is whether the existing proportional voting tendency, which dispersed votes to progressive parties like the Justice Party, will continue.

Additionally, whether the current Public Official Election Act's "semi-proportional representation system" will be maintained is also an important variable. Depending on whether the current election law, which inevitably leads to the emergence of satellite parties, is maintained or replaced by another form of election law, the proportional representation strategies of major parties are expected to change.