[Politics X-File] Gangseo-gu Mayor Election Turnout 48.7%, Is It Really a Record High?

(39) Election Turnout Myths Affecting By-Election Outcomes
Gangseo-gu Mayor Election Turnout Approaches Local Election Levels
Will Party Fortunes Diverge Based on High or Low Turnout?

Editor's Note"Political X-Files" is a series project that delivers the "all-time stories" recorded in the election results and incidents of Korean politics.

When talking about the hottest by-elections in Korean political history, the first that comes to mind is the April 27, 2011, by-election in Bundang-eul, Seongnam-si, Gyeonggi-do. At that time, by-elections were held in 38 constituencies nationwide, earning the nickname "mini general election." In particular, Bundang was a contest between leading politicians from the Grand National Party and the Democratic Party.

Democratic Party candidate Sohn Hak-kyu and Grand National Party candidate Kang Jae-seop were both former party leaders and presidential candidate-level politicians. This was not just an election to choose one member of the National Assembly but a battle for the political pride of the Grand National Party and the Democratic Party.

The voter turnout at that time reached a remarkable 49.1%. The voter turnout for by-elections in the metropolitan area was usually around 20-30%, indicating the intense interest of voters in the Bundang-eul election. Eventually, Sohn Hak-kyu narrowly defeated Kang Jae-seop after a close race. The turnout rate remained a topic of discussion for a long time.

On the 11th, the day of the by-election for the Mayor of Gangseo-gu, Seoul, voters are casting their ballots at the 9th polling station in Banghwa 1-dong, Gangseo-gu, Seoul. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

Having nearly half of the electorate vote in a weekday by-election is a testament to tremendous election enthusiasm. This level of turnout requires active participation not only from highly politically engaged groups but also from low-engagement voters.

What is noteworthy is that the election at that time was a face-off between prominent party leaders and a National Assembly member election.

Typically, voter turnout for local government head elections (mayor, county governor, district chief) is lower than that for National Assembly elections. This is because their political status is relatively lower and voter interest is less.

There was also a local government head election during the April 27, 2011, by-elections. In Seoul, a new district chief for Jung-gu was elected. Most people probably do not remember who the candidates were or who won. This means it was not the focus of attention.

A banner announcing the early voting site is hung in front of Banghwa 1-dong Community Center in Gangseo-gu, Seoul, on the 6th, the early voting day for the Gangseo District Mayor by-election. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

At that time, Choi Chang-sik of the Grand National Party was elected as the Jung-gu district chief with 51.3% of the vote.

The voter turnout for the Jung-gu district chief election was 31.4%. Compared to the nearly 50% turnout in the Bundang-eul National Assembly election held at the same time, the turnout for the Jung-gu district chief election was considerably lower.

The reason for mentioning the voting situation during the April 27 by-elections is to help gauge the level of voter turnout in the Seoul Gangseo-gu district chief by-election held on the 11th.

The voter turnout for the Gangseo-gu district chief by-election reached 48.7%. It might be hard to understand how high this turnout is just by the number. For reference, the early voting rate of 22.6% in the Gangseo-gu district chief election is the highest ever recorded in metropolitan area by-elections.

It is noteworthy that the Gangseo-gu district chief by-election, which was a local government head election rather than a National Assembly election, recorded a turnout close to 50%.

Kim Tae-woo, the People Power Party candidate for Gangseo District Mayor, is greeting supporters at the campaign office after the by-election voting ended on the 11th. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

In the 8th nationwide simultaneous local elections held on June 1 last year, the voter turnout for the Gangseo-gu district chief election was 51.7%. The turnout of the recent Gangseo-gu district chief by-election held on a weekday was almost as high as that of the local elections held on a holiday.

The 48.7% turnout in the Gangseo-gu district chief by-election far exceeded the expectations of most political experts. Those who predicted the election outcome based on a turnout in the 30% range had to reconsider their entire forecast as the turnout exceeded their expected range.

The conventional wisdom surrounding by-election turnout and election outcomes is also an interesting point to observe. Every election, analyses emerge suggesting that if turnout exceeds a certain percentage, one party has an advantage, and if it does not, another party benefits. Is this based on scientific evidence?

To conclude, the view that the advantage or disadvantage of a particular party changes depending on by-election turnout has many flaws. It is commonly believed that higher turnout favors the Democratic Party, while lower turnout favors the People Power Party.

On the 11th, when the by-election for the Mayor of Gangseo-gu, Seoul was held, Jin Gyo-hoon, the Democratic Party candidate, and party officials watched the TV vote count broadcast at the campaign office in Magok-dong, Gangseo-gu, Seoul. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

This analysis considers that when turnout is low, the importance of the middle-aged group, who tend to have a higher willingness to vote, increases. However, there is also a perspective that the enthusiasm of the core supporters' participation is a much more critical variable in election outcomes than turnout itself.

For example, the Seoul mayoral by-election held on April 7, 2021, had a relatively high turnout of 58.2%. At that time, People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon comfortably won with 57.5% of the vote. The Democratic Party grew hopeful as turnout rose higher than expected but ultimately lost with only 39.2% of the vote.

The voter turnout for the Gangdong-gu district chief by-election held in Seoul on June 4, 2008, was only 23.4%. According to the political conventional wisdom about by-election turnout, low turnout should have favored the Grand National Party (the predecessor of the People Power Party), which is strong among middle-aged voters, but the winner was the United Democratic Party.

United Democratic Party candidate Lee Hae-sik won comfortably with 53.1% of the vote.

The hypothesis that low by-election turnout is disadvantageous to Democratic Party-affiliated parties and high turnout is disadvantageous to People Power Party-affiliated parties may differ from actual election results.