Sharp Decline from 50,000 Units Earlier This Year
Concerns Over Jeonse Instability as Seoul's Housing Supply Decreases Next Year
Although the autumn moving season is approaching, the supply of jeonse listings for apartments in Seoul is drying up. Due to the aftermath of jeonse fraud and high interest rates, the number of listings, which reached around 50,000 earlier this year, plummeted to the 20,000 range in October. Next year's apartment move-in volume in Seoul is also expected to be half of this year's, signaling a 'red light' for the stabilization of Seoul's jeonse prices.
According to Apartment Real Transaction Price (Asil), a real estate big data company, as of the previous day, the total number of jeonse listings for apartments in Seoul was 29,026. The number of jeonse listings had remained in the 30,000 range since May but has been continuously decreasing since dropping to the 20,000 range (29,831 listings) on the 1st of this month, five months later.
Seoul's jeonse listings accumulated to around 55,000 in December last year as the preference for monthly rent became more pronounced due to nationwide jeonse fraud and high interest rates. Afterward, as monthly rent prices rose and interest rates stabilized, the listings began to decrease rapidly. From 40,000 in February to 30,000 in May, the number sharply declined, entering the 20,000 range in October, gradually revealing a bottom. It is the first time since July 2022 that Seoul apartment jeonse listings have fallen to the 20,000 range.
Accordingly, the jeonse prices, which had been falling helplessly, have now hit bottom and are rebounding. According to the Korea Real Estate Board, Seoul apartment jeonse prices have been rising for 19 consecutive weeks since the fourth week of May. Recently, the rate of increase has also been growing. The rise rate, which was around 0.03?0.09% in July, reached 0.17?0.20% in September. The government's easing of loan regulations for landlords unable to return jeonse deposits also served as a catalyst for the jeonse price rebound.
In fact, it is not difficult to find cases in central Seoul where jeonse prices have jumped by 200 to 300 million KRW within a few months. For example, the jeonse actual transaction price for Mapo Raemian Prugio 84C㎡ in Ahyeon-dong, Mapo-gu, which had fallen to 700 million KRW earlier this year, rose to 950 million KRW in September. Similarly, Oksoo Park Hills 84B㎡ in Oksoo-dong, Seongdong-gu, surged from 730 million KRW in January to 940 million KRW in September.
In the market, concerns are growing that despite recent government supply measures, the shortage of move-in volume could intensify instability in the jeonse market. Ham Young-jin, head of the Zigbang Big Data Lab, said, "Seoul apartment move-in volume will be halved from 30,000 units this year to 15,000 units next year," adding, "Even if the decrease in move-in volume in Gyeonggi-do and Incheon offsets this, it is highly likely that Seoul jeonse prices will continue to rise for the time being."
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