Impact of Non-OPEC Export Increase
Current Oil Price Around $90
There is a forecast that the recently soaring international oil prices may decline further next year. The reason is that oil exports from producing countries are gradually increasing.
On the 3rd (local time), US 'Yahoo Finance' cited a recent commodity research report from one of the three major US investment banks, 'Citibank,' reporting that "Brent crude is expected to average $82 in the fourth quarter of this year and $74 next year, indicating a bearish outlook."
Previously, crude oil prices surged 28% in the third quarter due to production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus (OPEC+), including Saudi Arabia and Russia.
The US crude oil inventory decreased much more than expected, also affecting prices. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil inventories fell to 22 million barrels in the fourth week of last month, marking the lowest level since July last year.
Because of this, banks such as Goldman Sachs predicted that international oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel within the next 12 months.
However, Citigroup anticipates that in the fourth quarter, the effect of production cuts will disappear, causing crude oil prices to turn downward. This is because exports from non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries such as the US, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana are expected to increase. It has also been confirmed that oil exports from Venezuela and Iran have risen.
Currently, international oil prices stand at $90.92 per barrel for Brent crude and $89.23 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) as of the 3rd.
Nevertheless, some warn that upward pressure on oil prices still exists. On the same day, OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais said in an interview with BBC English broadcast, "Daily average oil demand is increasing by about 2.4 million barrels," forecasting that the high oil price situation will continue.
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