[General Election D-200] Approval Ratings Trapped in a Box Range... Uncertain Election Landscape

In-depth Interviews with 3 Public Opinion Polling Experts
Key Variables for Next Year's General Election: Swing Voters, Economy, Voter Turnout
Midterm Evaluation of Yoon... Favorable for Democracy but Unpredictable Outcomes

With the general election for the National Assembly scheduled for April 10 next year just over 200 days away, the approval ratings of both ruling and opposition parties remain stuck in a narrow range. President Yoon Suk-yeol's approval rating for his administration fluctuates in the mid-30% range, while the People Power Party and the Democratic Party of Korea are neck and neck around 30%. Although there have been slight shifts in support following events such as Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung's indefinite hunger strike and ideological debates surrounding the relocation of busts of independence heroes like General Hong Beom-do, the public opinion barometer remains largely unchanged.

On the 20th, Asia Economy conducted in-depth interviews with three major domestic pollsters (Ahn Il-won, CEO of Research View; Lee Kang-yoon, Director of the Korea Social Opinion Institute; and Hong Hyung-sik, Director of Hangil Research). They analyzed that since last year's presidential election, the political landscape characterized by a minority ruling party and majority opposition has led to extreme confrontations, resulting in public opinion relying heavily on hardline supporters. The upcoming general election is expected to be decided by the rapidly growing number of undecided voters, economic conditions, and voter turnout.

① What is the current political landscape?

According to a Realmeter poll commissioned by Energy Economy Newspaper conducted from the 11th to the 15th among 2,505 adults nationwide, President Yoon's approval rating dropped by 1.2 percentage points from the previous week to 35.5%. In weekly Realmeter polls, President Yoon started the year with a 40.4% approval rating in the first week of January, fell to the low 30% range at one point, and has since hovered around 35%.

Looking at weekly statistics from another polling agency, Gallup Korea, the survey released on the 8th (conducted from September 12 to 14; detailed results available on the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website) showed a 31% approval rating. Starting at 37% in the first week of this year, it fluctuated in response to major political issues, dropping to 27% in April. Although it rose to 38% in July, it has steadily declined since last month. Analysts attribute this decline to some supporters defecting amid controversies such as the Fukushima contaminated water discharge, Lee Jae-myung's hunger strike, and historical disputes.

The approval ratings for both ruling and opposition parties show a similar pattern. Despite some discrepancies between polls, the consistent trend is that the entire political sphere is trapped within a narrow range. Director Hong explained, "Currently, the approval ratings for both ruling and opposition parties rely entirely on their hardline supporters." Since there has been no opportunity for public judgment since last year's presidential election, both parties have been competing internally to maintain their vested interests, resulting in public opinion consolidating only among hardline supporters. He added, "If the Democratic Party had humbly accepted defeat after the presidential election, the ruling party would have been more cautious. However, because the opposition did not acknowledge defeat and took a hardline stance, the ruling party reacted more strongly. The ruling party is moving toward ideological consolidation, while the opposition is focusing on internal unity."

Director Lee's diagnosis was similar. He pointed out, "A notable feature now is the increase in undecided voters," adding, "There have been defections from both sides who voted for President Yoon and Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung. There is disappointment in both the ruling and opposition parties."

② Undecided voters doubled... The biggest variable in next year's general election

Polling experts unanimously agree that the outcome of next year's general election hinges on the votes of the 'undecided voters.' Director Hong said, "Currently, the undecided voters (those who do not express support for any party) will become swing voters during the election, and I expect this group to increase significantly." He analyzed, "The undecided voters were about 10% to 15% when the administration first took office, but now they exceed 30%." As both parties focus on internal power struggles, one-third of the total electorate who have defected will determine the election outcome.

In fact, Gallup Korea's data shows that in the first week of March 2022, just before the last presidential election, the proportion of undecided voters who said they had no party affiliation was only 14%. However, as conflicts between ruling and opposition parties intensified over the presidential office relocation, the figure rose to 23% in the third week of May, the week after President Yoon's inauguration. From the first week of September to the first week of October, it increased from 25% to 30%, marking the first time since the Yoon administration began that undecided voters reached 30%. During this period, repeated conflicts occurred over issues such as Typhoon Hinnamnor, controversies surrounding President Yoon's remarks during his U.S. visit, the Legoland incident, and demands for prosecution appearances related to Lee Jae-myung's Seongnam FC sponsorship fund controversy.

After maintaining a high-20% level, the undecided voter rate hit 30% in the first week of July and remained in the low 30% range until the first week of August. This period coincided with several incidents, including the mid-June directive on the college entrance exam question setting, flooding of the Gungpyeong 2 underground road in July, the death of Marine Corps Corporal Chae Mo in the 1st Division, and controversies related to the Scout Jamboree. Recently, the rate has dropped back to 28%, but the proportion of undecided voters has roughly doubled compared to just after last year's presidential election. CEO Ahn explained, "Since the 17th general election, there have been five elections, and based on proportional representation vote shares, the People Power Party's core support is about 37%, and the Democratic Party's is about 35%. The variable is which party can better expand its centrist base."

③ 'Shy Progressives' revealed in polls... Will they decide the fate of ruling and opposition parties?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Current polls show that in face-to-face interviews (where a person directly asks questions over the phone), the People Power Party has shown strength, whereas in automated response system (ARS) surveys, the Democratic Party tends to lead. This has raised the possibility of 'shy progressives'?people who do not disclose their political leanings in polls but support progressive policies. CEO Ahn noted, "Since former President Lee Myung-bak's era, there have been some shy progressives, and during former President Moon Jae-in's administration, there were shy conservatives." He explained, "In face-to-face interviews, there is a likelihood of shy progressives," adding, "In ARS surveys, psychological burden is lower, so the bias may be less pronounced." People tend to reveal their true voting intentions more honestly when listening to recorded voices than when speaking directly to an interviewer.

This trend is also reflected in polls predicting next year's general election results. In a Gallup poll released in the first week of this month, only 37% believed that ruling party candidates would win a majority, while 50% expected the opposition to secure a majority. Even in early March, when President Yoon and the ruling party's approval ratings were high, 44% predicted an opposition victory, slightly ahead of the ruling party's 42%.

However, polling experts unanimously agreed that it is impossible to predict the election outcome if the vote were held at this moment. While Director Lee declined to comment, Directors Hong and Ahn explained that although the Democratic Party appears dominant in ARS and other polling formats, the actual election results could differ.

CEO Ahn said, "From a macro perspective, the Democratic Party seems advantaged, but micro indicators suggest it will not be an easy election for them." He added, "If voter turnout exceeds 60% next year, it would favor the Democratic Party, but as seen in local elections, turnout is likely to be below 60%. If it remains in the low to mid-50% range, the Democratic Party cannot win the general election." He also pointed out the illusion between poll results and actual voting outcomes. "Polls are adjusted according to population proportions, but voter turnout adjustments by age group are not made," he explained. "Voter turnout among those in their 60s and older, who strongly support the People Power Party, is higher than among those in their 40s, where the Democratic Party is stronger." Ultimately, election results are determined by those who actually cast their votes, not by polls.