Is a Third Candidate Emerging in the US Presidential Election... Biden's Votes Likely to Split

Biden vs. Trump Rematch Key Variable Deciding Outcome
"Trump Will Win If a Third Candidate Runs"

In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the potential candidacy of a third-party candidate is emerging as a key variable that could determine the outcome between the Democrats and Republicans. Especially with a likely rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, there are forecasts that the emergence of a third candidate would create a favorable situation for former President Trump.

Joe Lieberman, former senator and co-chair of the centrist political group 'No Labels,' appeared on Fox News on the 27th (local time) and announced, "We will hold an event in Dallas, Texas, next April to nominate a bipartisan candidate."

According to the No Labels website, a poll conducted in eight battleground states showed that 63% of all respondents said they would support a third candidate if the 2024 election ended up as a contest between President Biden and former President Trump. This figure is higher than the 59% recorded in a survey conducted last December. The percentage of respondents who said Biden and Trump should not run for re-election was 72% and 63%, respectively.

Lieberman said, "Our plan is to run only when we realistically can win," adding, "We believe there is a genuine opportunity for a third candidate." He emphasized, "We are focusing first on the most important task, which is to appear on the ballot as a third candidate in all 50 states."

No Labels is focusing on potential third-party presidential candidates such as former Republican Governor Larry Hogan, who is married to a Korean wife and is known as the 'Korean son-in-law,' Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman.

If a centrist third candidate materializes, there is a possibility that President Biden’s votes could be split. According to a recent poll conducted by Emerson College in Michigan, including a Green Party candidate showed Biden trailing behind former President Trump. For this reason, the Democratic Party criticizes the idea of a third candidate.

Political media outlet Politico quoted Democratic Representative Ann Kuster of New Hampshire as saying, "The plan for a third candidate to run would open the path for the most extreme and far-right candidate, Trump, to win the presidential election."