New COVID-19 cases have been on the rise for five consecutive weeks. Health authorities expect the daily average number of confirmed cases to reach around 60,000 in mid-July, with a maximum of approximately 76,000 cases per day.
On the 2nd, the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters and the Central Disease Control Headquarters reported that the total number of new COVID-19 cases in the fourth week of July (23?30) was 313,906, a 23.7% increase compared to the previous week. The weekly daily average number of confirmed cases was 44,844. The reproduction number, an indicator that shows how many people one infected person infects, was 1.19. A value above 1 indicates spread.
In particular, the number of cases among the elderly aged 60 and above is on the rise. The proportion of cases in this age group during this period was 29.8%, up from 26.7% the previous week. The average daily number of severe or critical patients under treatment last week was 170. The number of deaths increased by 72.5% to 13 per day.
The Central Disease Control Headquarters explained, "Considering the continuous emergence of variants and the duration of immunity maintained through natural infection and vaccination, small-scale fluctuations may occur once or twice a year," adding, "The main reasons for the increase are presumed to be the lifting of isolation requirements, leading to more people not getting tested despite symptoms, and insufficient ventilation during air conditioning in the summer." Considering the continuous emergence of variants and immunity maintenance through natural infection and vaccination,
small-scale fluctuations may occur once or twice a year. The scale of cases over four weeks is about two-thirds of the peak during last winter’s outbreak, and the number of deaths is about one-fifth. The highest daily number of confirmed cases during last summer’s resurgence was 180,729 (August 17, 2022).
The fatality rate in mid-July is between 0.02% and 0.04%, and the severe case rate is between 0.09% and 0.10%. These rates are lower than the 0.10% fatality rate during last year’s Omicron surge and two subsequent resurgences. The Central Disease Control Headquarters considers this to be a decline to the level of seasonal influenza fatality rates.
The Central Disease Control Headquarters stated, "The number of confirmed cases in mid-August is expected to be about 60,000 daily on a weekly average, similar to December last year, but due to the decrease in fatality rate, the number of deaths is expected to be about half compared to the same period," while also noting, "Given the recent sharp increase in confirmed cases and the rising number of cases among those aged 60 and above, continuous monitoring of the epidemic situation and risk assessment are necessary."
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