[Global Issue+] Why Putin Pardoned Traitor Prigozhin... Growing Anxiety Over Next Year's Election

"Cracks Throughout the Regime, Forced to Make Deals"
Vote Share Management Intensifies Ahead of March Presidential Election Next Year

Although the military rebellion led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Russian mercenary company Wagner Group, has been settled for now, suspicions surrounding the rebellion continue to persist. In particular, there is growing skepticism about why President Vladimir Putin, who has ruthlessly eliminated political rivals who betrayed him in the past, is still keeping Prigozhin alive.

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Analysts suggest that Putin's impatience ahead of the March presidential election next year has become apparent amid the ongoing war in Ukraine not going according to his wishes. The calculation is that no further cracks should occur within the regime ahead of the election, which will serve as a stepping stone for his lifelong rule.

The worsening public sentiment is also a major concern for President Putin. There are even reports that instructions have been issued to civil servants and frontline companies to achieve an 80% approval rating for the election, signaling the start of serious support rate management. It is widely expected that as the war drags on, managing approval ratings and maintaining the regime will become increasingly difficult.

UK Intelligence Chief: "Putin Felt Pressure... A Deal Was Inevitable"

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

On the 19th (local time), according to foreign media including The New York Times (NYT), Richard Moore, head of the British Secret Intelligence Service (MI6), revealed during a public speech at the British Embassy in Prague, Czech Republic, that President Putin attempted to make a deal with Prigozhin during the military rebellion.

Moore stated, "Putin made a deal with Prigozhin, who was advancing toward Moscow to escape his predicament. He was feeling some pressure. Prigozhin was entirely a creation of Putin, but he betrayed Putin, and Putin did not fight against Prigozhin. With the help of Belarus, he escaped the predicament."

Although Moore did not specify the details of the deal Putin made, he pointed out that the weakness of the Putin regime was exposed, making a deal inevitable. Moore said, "If he had anticipated such an event, Wagner Group would not have been allowed to capture Rostov-on-Don and advance within 125 km of Moscow."

Earlier, the Russian government had announced that President Putin met with 35 Wagner Group commanders, including Prigozhin, at the Kremlin for three hours on the 29th of last month, lending considerable credibility to Moore's remarks. Above all, the fact that the head of a British intelligence agency, who usually avoids public statements, made such an announcement attracted significant attention.

Prigozhin also demonstrated his continued presence and hinted that he would no longer be involved in the Ukraine war. On the 19th, Prigozhin posted a video on his Telegram account welcoming mercenaries who arrived in Belarus. In the video, Prigozhin praised the soldiers, saying, "Welcome to Belarus. We fought honorably. You have done a lot for Russia," and added, "What is happening on the front lines is a disgrace we do not need to be involved in," further stating, "Perhaps we will return to the special military operation when we are confident that we ourselves are not ashamed."

Approval Ratings Plummet Ahead of Fifth Term... Ordered to Achieve '80%'

[Image source=TASS Yonhap News]

The reason President Putin is making deals with Prigozhin and finds it difficult to take action against him is believed to be the upcoming March election. Amid the prolonged Ukraine war and declining approval ratings, it is thought that Putin wanted to avoid anything that could affect next year's election, which is a stepping stone for his lifelong rule.

Recently, it has been reported that Putin is paying close attention to managing approval ratings. According to The Times of the UK, citing sources close to the Kremlin, the independent Russian media outlet Meduza reported that "President Putin is ensuring an 80% vote share through various means such as administrative and corporate mobilization," indicating that Putin has instructed public officials to manage approval ratings.

President Putin, who secured his fourth term in June 2018 with a six-year mandate, was elected with 76.69% of the vote at that time. It is known that he places great emphasis on achieving over 80% approval ratings. Following the constitutional amendment passed in July 2020, which effectively allows him to remain in office until 2036, Putin has sought to solidify the legitimacy of his long-term rule through achievements such as victory in the Ukraine war.

In this context, it has become very difficult to remove Prigozhin, who leads the Wagner Group, the vanguard of the Ukraine war, and has gained high public recognition. As the Ukraine war continues to drag on, attention is focused on what impact the decision to keep Prigozhin, who plotted a rebellion, will have on the Putin regime in the future.