[Politics X-File] Disappeared TK and Honam Politicians from Presidential Ballots... Why Exactly?

(26) TK-Honam, the Core Axis of Korean Politics
Direct Hit of Overhaul in Every General Election, Graveyard for Multi-term Lawmakers
Questions on Regional Politicians to Succeed Hong Joon-pyo and Lee Nak-yeon

Editor's Note‘Political X-File’ is a series project that delivers ‘unprecedented stories’ recorded in the election results and incidents of Korean politics.

“In the Gyeongbuk region, the most senior lawmakers are re-elected lawmakers.”

The statement made by Kim Jae-won, a Supreme Council member of the People Power Party, in an interview with SBS’s ‘Kim Tae-hyun’s Political Show’ on the 12th is worth noting. It reflects the political reality of Daegu and Gyeongbuk (TK). TK, along with Honam, has played a central role in Korean politics.

Often, a figure who aligns with the so-called TK sentiment becomes the presidential candidate of conservative parties. Conversely, a figure who aligns with Honam sentiment is generally selected as the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea. However, although politicians from Honam and TK regions seem likely to be spotlighted in presidential elections, the reality is different.

There are politicians whose hometowns are TK or Honam, but examining their political roots reveals close ties to central politics in Seoul and other areas. This means that even if they were born in TK or Honam, most of their lives have been politically based in Seoul.

Looking at presidential elections since 2000, regional politicians nurtured in TK or Honam have been far from becoming presidential candidates.

On the People Power Party side, candidates included Lee Hoi-chang in 2002, Lee Myung-bak in 2007, Park Geun-hye in 2012, Hong Joon-pyo in 2017, and Yoon Seok-youl in 2022. Although Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye are from TK, it is reasonable to consider them as central politicians.

Lee Myung-bak served as the mayor of Seoul, and Park Geun-hye is also difficult to regard as a politician nurtured regionally.

Hong Joon-pyo, a politician who served as mayor of Daegu Metropolitan City, is from TK but became a multi-term lawmaker representing the Dongdaemun district in Seoul. Although he is currently settled in TK, he built his political weight in Seoul.

What about the future? Examining the results of the 21st National Assembly election in 2020 in TK can clarify this question. In Daegu, lawmakers such as Kwak Sang-do, Ryu Seong-gul, Kang Dae-sik, Kim Sang-hoon, Yang Geum-hee, Kim Seung-soo, Joo Ho-young, Hong Joon-pyo, Hong Seok-jun, Yoon Jae-ok, Kim Yong-pan, and Chu Kyung-ho were elected.

On the afternoon of the 4th, before the 'People Power Party - Daegu·Gyeongbuk Budget Policy Council' held at the Daegu City Hall Sangyeok Building Auditorium in Buk-gu, Daegu, Hong Joon-pyo, Mayor of Daegu, Lee Cheol-woo, Governor of Gyeongbuk, Yoon Jae-ok, Floor Leader of the People Power Party, along with city and provincial officials and lawmakers, are taking a commemorative photo. [Image source=Yonhap News]

Hong Joon-pyo stepped down from his lawmaker position to become mayor of Daegu. Joo Ho-young and Yoon Jae-ok are former and current ruling party leadership members, and Chu Kyung-ho is the Deputy Prime Minister for Economy. Among the incumbent lawmakers, only Joo Ho-young can be considered a presidential candidate-level politician who grew based on TK, but whether he can actually become the ruling party’s presidential candidate is questionable.

In Gyeongbuk, lawmakers such as Kim Jeong-jae, Kim Byung-wook, Kim Seok-ki, Song Eon-seok, Kim Hyeong-dong, Koo Ja-geun, Kim Hyeong-sik, Park Hyeong-su, Lee Man-hee, Lim E-ja, Yoon Doo-hyun, Kim Hee-guk, and Jeong Hee-yong were elected. The reality is that none of them appear to be figures who can break through in the 2027 presidential election.

Compared to the past when TK politicians like Kang Jae-seop and Kim Yoon-hwan from conservative parties dominated the central political stage, their political weight has significantly diminished.

What about Honam? Looking at the Democratic Party’s presidential candidates since 2000, politicians from the Honam region have also been far from presidential candidates. Candidates included Roh Moo-hyun in 2002, Chung Dong-young in 2007, Moon Jae-in in 2012 and 2017, and Lee Jae-myung in 2022.

Roh Moo-hyun and Moon Jae-in are politicians from the Busan-Gyeongnam region. Lee Jae-myung’s hometown is TK, but he built his political career in the Seoul metropolitan area, serving as governor of Gyeonggi Province. Chung Dong-young is a politician nurtured in Jeonju, Jeonbuk, thus considered a Honam politician.

Former leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, Lee Nak-yeon, is speaking to supporters after returning to South Korea through Incheon International Airport on the afternoon of June 24, 2022, following a one-year study abroad in the United States. [Image source=Yonhap News]

Could Honam lawmakers be dark horses in the 2027 presidential election? Looking at those elected in the 2020 general election, Gwangju elected lawmakers such as Yoon Young-duk, Lee Byung-hoon, Song Gap-seok, Yang Hyang-ja, Jo Oh-seop, Lee Hyung-seok, Lee Yong-bin, and Min Hyung-bae. There are practically no presidential candidate-level politicians.

Jeonbuk elected Kim Yoon-duk, Lee Sang-jik, Kim Sung-joo, Shin Young-dae, Kim Soo-heung, Han Byung-do, Yoon Jun-byung, Lee Yong-ho, Lee Won-taek, and Ahn Ho-young. Jeonnam elected Kim Won-i, Joo Cheol-hyun, Kim Hoe-jae, So Byung-chul, Seo Dong-yong, Shin Jeong-hoon, Lee Gae-ho, Kim Seung-nam, Yoon Jae-gap, and Seo Sam-seok.

Among the lawmakers elected from Jeonnam and Jeonbuk in the last general election, there are no figures with the political weight of presidential candidates. This is very different from the past when former President Kim Dae-jung from Mokpo, Jeonnam, dominated central politics.

The reason politicians nurtured in Honam and TK do not grow into presidential candidate-level figures is because they suffer from the ‘reshuffle’ issue every general election. Lawmakers with three or four terms become the main targets of reshuffles, and their seats are repeatedly filled by political newcomers.

Also, many regional politicians who grew up in TK and Honam move their political stage to Seoul while dreaming ‘big dreams.’ In fact, this issue is not limited to TK and Honam but is the same in other regions such as Chungcheong and PK (Busan-Gyeongnam).

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Furthermore, the reason why politicians from TK and Honam have particularly little influence in presidential elections is not unrelated to the so-called ‘caught fish’ theory. Generally, TK will vote for the People Power Party’s presidential candidate, and Honam will vote for the Democratic Party’s candidate, so candidates who can appeal in other regions are sought, and in that process, TK and Honam politicians are discriminated against.

Will this practice, which has continued since 2000, be repeated in the 2027 presidential election?

In the Democratic Party, former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yeon, who served as governor of Jeonnam, and in the People Power Party, Hong Joon-pyo, former lawmaker from Daegu and current mayor of Daegu, are included among the likely presidential candidates. If they become winners in their party’s nomination competition, the legacy of TK and Honam politicians, which had disappeared from the ballot, may continue. However, whether they can overcome the intra-party presidential race remains to be seen.

In fact, the concerns of TK and Honam regional politics are separate. Politician Hong Joon-pyo became a lawmaker in 1996, and politician Lee Nak-yeon in 2000. Both have undergone over 20 years of political training to reach their current positions. Presidential candidate-level politicians do not suddenly emerge. They grow into presidential candidates only after becoming known, recognized for their abilities, and verified for political efficacy.

When politicians Hong Joon-pyo and Lee Nak-yeon eventually retire from active politics, their successors must fill their places, but among TK and Honam politicians, no clear figures appear to fill their void. Moreover, there is no current trend to nurture and support existing TK-Honam lawmakers into major regional figures. This means that after 2027, it may become even more difficult to see the names of TK and Honam politicians on presidential ballots.