[Politics That Day] In October, Ahead of the 'Seoul Gangseo Battle,' the Ruling Party Remembers a Bittersweet Memory from a Year Ago

Memories of Recapturing the Difficult Gangseo District After 16 Years
Last Year's Local Elections Benefited from President Yoon's Halo Effect
Upcoming October By-Election Faces Government Midterm Evaluation Pressure

Editor's Note‘On That Day in Politics’ is a series planning corner that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to notable scenes, events, and figures.

The by-election for the Mayor of Gangseo District, Seoul, scheduled for Wednesday, October 11, is one of the biggest political issues in the second half of the year. With the 22nd general election on April 10 next year drawing the attention of Yeouido’s political circles, this election can be seen as a preliminary stage. Kim Tae-woo, the Gangseo District Mayor from the People Power Party, stepped down after the Supreme Court confirmed his guilt on May 18 regarding charges of leaking official secrets. A new Gangseo District Mayor will be elected in October.

The Gangseo District Mayor election is a burden for the ruling party in many respects. From the People Power Party’s perspective, it is a situation where they must go all out. This is related to the political situation in Gangseo District. Gangseo is often cited as one of the toughest districts for the ruling party in Seoul.

Gangseo District has historically been a stronghold for the Democratic Party of Korea in past elections. In that sense, the 8th simultaneous local elections held on June 1, 2022, are noteworthy. The People Power Party fielded candidate Kim Tae-woo, while the Democratic Party nominated Kim Seung-hyun.

Kim Ki-hyun, leader of the People Power Party, is attending the Supreme Council meeting held at the National Assembly on the 3rd. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

It was a direct one-on-one contest between the People Power Party and the Democratic Party with no other candidates. The result was a victory for the People Power Party. Candidate Kim Tae-woo won with 132,121 votes, securing 51.3% of the vote. Candidate Kim Seung-hyun lost with 125,408 votes, accounting for 48.7%.

The People Power Party won 17 out of the 25 district mayor elections in Seoul. Among these, the victory in Gangseo District was special. It was not just a single win; it was several times more valuable than other victories.

Looking back at the vote share for the Gangseo District Mayor in the 7th simultaneous local elections in 2016 explains why. Democratic Party candidate Roh Hyun-song won a landslide with 184,229 votes, 61.6% of the vote. At that time, Liberty Korea Party candidate Kim Tae-sung received only 77,069 votes, 25.8% of the vote.

Considering that Roh Hyun-song was the incumbent Gangseo District Mayor, the gap in vote share between the two candidates was significant. Gangseo was such a place. The last time a party claiming to be the mainstream conservative party, like the People Power Party, won there was in the 4th simultaneous local elections in 2006.

Kim Tae-woo’s election victory marks the first win in 16 years. The 2006 local elections were a record landslide victory for the Grand National Party in the metropolitan area. The People Power Party side had a pleasant victory in Gangseo District for the first time since 2006.

However, looking back at last year’s election situation, there is inevitably some anxiety about the upcoming October by-election. Last year’s local elections were held right after President Yoon Suk-yeol’s inauguration. Before the election, the prevailing analysis was that the People Power Party was bound to win.

Looking at Korean election history, it is common for the ruling party to receive favorable results immediately after a president’s inauguration as a sign of support.

However, the upcoming October by-election will be held in the second year of the president’s term. The opposition party is expected to emphasize the election as a mid-term evaluation of government performance, which is a burden for the ruling party.

The ruling party needs to maintain the momentum of victories in both last year’s presidential and local elections in Seoul, but this election is expected to be challenging in many respects.

Although the election lineup is not yet finalized, four preliminary candidates are already active in Gangseo District. It is too early to say for sure, but unlike last year’s local elections, this election is likely to be a multi-candidate race.

On June 1, 2022, the day of the 8th nationwide local elections, voters are casting their precious votes at Yeonhui-dong 6th polling station set up at Seodaemun-gu Office in Seoul. Photo by Mun Ho-nam munonam@

Because by-elections are held only in certain areas, public attention is highly concentrated. If candidates aiming to win as well as those running for the sake of participation join, there is a high possibility that multiple candidates will be on the ballot.

The focus is on the election strategies of the People Power Party and the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party is expected to deliberate until the last moment to present a winning card. The People Power Party is expected to continue deliberations on whether to counterattack or choose the detour of not nominating a candidate.

From the ruling party’s perspective, the political significance of the election result is a burden. It means they might try to change the game with a strategy to dampen enthusiasm. However, whether the ruling party will take a passive stance in the Gangseo District Mayor election, which serves as a preliminary battle for the general election, remains to be seen.

Victory in the Gangseo District Mayor election is necessary to continue the advantage in Seoul public sentiment confirmed in the presidential and local elections. Moreover, the nature of by-elections, which tend to have low voter turnout, creates an environment favorable to the People Power Party, which is strong among middle-aged and older voters.

The opposition party is already sharpening its blades. Depending on the situation, the ruling party may also set its direction toward a direct confrontation. Attention is focused on whether the October Gangseo showdown will create another election drama.