[Political X-File] The Impregnable 'Seoul Gwangjin-eul' for Conservative Parties... Speculation on Han Dong-hoon's Candidacy

(25) Gwangjin-gu Eul General Election, No Conservative Party Victory
Gominjeong, Defeated Oh Se-hoon in 2020, Center of Attention
Democratic Party Struggles, Choo Mi-ae Also Won Gwangjin Eul in 2008

Editor's Note‘Political X-File’ is a series that delivers ‘unprecedented stories’ recorded in the election results and incidents of Korean politics.

“Anyway, I will just say that I am confident no matter who comes.”

On the 3rd, Go Min-jung, a member of the Democratic Party of Korea, said this during an appearance on CBS Radio’s ‘Kim Hyun-jung’s News Show.’ She expressed confidence regarding the upcoming 22nd general election, which is just 10 months away. The district of Go Min-jung, Seoul Gwangjin-eul, has rapidly emerged as a key battleground due to rumors of candidacies by ‘political heavyweights’ from both ruling and opposition parties.

Among ruling party figures, Han Dong-hoon, the Minister of Justice who is leading the next presidential race, has attracted attention with speculation about running in Gwangjin-eul, regardless of his own intentions. Although he has never declared his intention to run in the general election, there is speculation that if he does, Gwangjin-eul would be the most likely district.

This is intertwined with the so-called ‘difficult district’ candidacy rumors from the People Power Party. Gwangjin-eul is like an impregnable fortress for the People Power Party. The conservative parties that have inherited the conservative lineage, including the Future United Party, Saenuri Party, and Hannara Party, predecessors of the People Power Party, have all struggled here.

Minister of Justice Han Dong-hoon is answering questions from the press at the National Assembly on June 21. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

In all past general elections, no conservative party has ever won in Seoul Gwangjin-eul even once. How could such a result occur? Gwangjin-gu was established in 1995. It was separated from Seongdong-gu to become the current Gwangjin-gu.

The first time a member of the National Assembly was elected from Gwangjin-gu was in the 15th general election in 1996. Since then, seven members of the National Assembly have been elected from Gwangjin-eul in the 16th general election in 2000, the 17th in 2004, the 18th in 2008, the 19th in 2012, the 20th in 2016, and the 21st in 2020.

The result is a complete defeat for conservative parties.

Gwangjin-eul has been a place that sparked attention in every general election. Currently, it is the district of Go Min-jung, but originally it was the stronghold of politician Chu Mi-ae. Out of the seven general elections in Gwangjin-eul, Chu Mi-ae won five times.

The only times someone else won the Gwangjin-eul National Assembly seat were in the 21st general election in 2020, when Chu Mi-ae did not run, and in the 2004 general election, which was held amid the whirlwind of impeachment backlash. In the 2004 general election, Chu Mi-ae ran as the candidate of the Millennium Democratic Party but was defeated by Kim Hyung-joo of the Uri Party.

Gominjeong, Supreme Council Member of the Democratic Party of Korea. Photo by Dongju Yoon doso7@

At that time, candidate Chu Mi-ae received 30.1% of the vote, while candidate Kim Hyung-joo recorded 35.65%.

In the 2008 general election, Chu Mi-ae made a spectacular comeback. That election was a difficult one in which candidates from the United Democratic Party were largely defeated in Seoul. However, Chu Mi-ae in Gwangjin-eul won comfortably with a majority vote of 51.3%.

For conservative parties, the 2008 and 2020 general elections were golden opportunities to overcome the Gwangjin-eul barrier, but they failed to achieve their goals.

In the 2020 general election, the Future United Party (the predecessor of the People Power Party) deployed its best card in Gwangjin-eul: Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon. When news broke that Mayor Oh Se-hoon would face the political newcomer Go Min-jung in Gwangjin-eul, many predicted his victory. The consensus was that Oh Se-hoon had the advantage in political experience and recognition.

However, the result was different. Oh Se-hoon, the Future United Party candidate, garnered 47.8% of the vote. Go Min-jung, the Democratic Party candidate, won with 50.4%, landing a big catch. The biggest topic of the 21st general election was the result in Seoul Gwangjin-eul.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

So, what will happen in 2024? Gwangjin-eul remains at the center of attention for next year’s general election. If the People Power Party puts forward the Han Dong-hoon card, it is expected to instantly become the most talked-about district nationwide. If the conservative party manages to capture Gwangjin-eul, an impregnable fortress that it has never overcome even once, the political symbolism will be even greater.

On the Democratic Party side, not only the incumbent Go Min-jung but also former lawmaker Chu Mi-ae’s possible candidacy is drawing attention. If Chu Mi-ae, who served five terms as a National Assembly member from Gwangjin-eul, participates in the party primary, the candidate selection process will attract significant interest.

Will the People Power Party be able to break the curse of Gwangjin-eul, which has become a jinx for conservative parties? Will Chu Mi-ae return as a National Assembly member from Gwangjin-eul and enter the race for the next National Assembly Speaker? Will Go Min-jung defeat another political heavyweight and emerge as the protagonist of the general election once again?

Although the election landscape in Seoul Gwangjin-eul has not yet been finalized, it is already receiving attention as the hottest district in the 22nd general election.