US Secretary of State on Wagner Rebellion: "Russia Divided... Ukraine Invasion a Failure in Every Aspect"

U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blinken stated on the 25th (local time) regarding the mutiny by the Russian mercenary company Wagner Group that "cracks in the facade" are appearing in Russia.

Secretary Blinken appeared on CNN's Face the Nation that day and said, "We do not have complete information, and it is certainly too early to say exactly how this situation will unfold," but made the remark.

When asked whether this incident would lead to the resignation of Russian President Vladimir Putin, he replied, "I do not want to speculate. This is primarily an internal Russian issue." However, he emphasized, "We have witnessed that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been a strategic failure in every respect."

Furthermore, Secretary Blinken said, "Putin should be as worried about what is happening inside Russia as he is about the war in Ukraine," adding, "This will provide an additional advantage that Ukrainians can exploit."

Secretary Blinken confirmed on ABC This Week that U.S. President Joe Biden has not contacted President Putin separately since this incident. Instead, he convened national security officials and key allies.

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

Earlier, Yevgeny Prigozhin led the mercenary company Wagner Group in a mutiny advancing toward Moscow, Russia. Although the armed rebellion was halted within a day through mediation by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, it is widely regarded as having fully exposed President Putin's vulnerabilities.

The Washington Post (WP) reported that President Putin could face challenges from Russian elites or leaders of the Chechen Republic, Tatarstan, and other regions within Russia. Russian dissident Mikhail Khodorkovsky told WP, "Regardless of how the current crisis ends, it will further weaken the Putin regime." The British daily The Times described it as an "unprecedented humiliation for President Putin." Amid threats from Prigozhin, a foreign leader intervened to resolve Russia's domestic issues, and scenes of citizens cheering for Prigozhin were also observed.

The U.S. think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated in a separate report, "While the Russian government is not expected to collapse immediately due to this rebellion, significant damage will be inflicted on President Putin's government and the war in Ukraine." It revealed a shortage of reserves in Russia's rear at the Ukrainian battlefield and predicted a decline in the morale of Russian troops in Ukraine.

ISW pointed out, "The Kremlin is now in a very unstable equilibrium," adding, "The deal negotiated by Lukashenko is a short-term patch rather than a long-term solution, exposing serious weaknesses in the Kremlin and the Ministry of Defense." The institute analyzed that Prigozhin likely viewed the order from Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu that irregular forces must sign official contracts with the Ministry of Defense as a political and personal survival threat, prompting the rebellion.