North Korea Begins Maintenance at Dongchang-ri Launch Site... "Preparing for Reconnaissance Satellite Relaunch"

Repackaging Around Dongchang-ri Launch Site... Maintenance Work Spotted
US Media: "Concrete Preparations for Satellite Relaunch"
Military: "Difficult to Specify Timing, but ROK-US Closely Monitoring North Korea"

North Korea, which has announced the re-launch of its 'military reconnaissance satellite,' has been observed starting maintenance at the West Sea Satellite Launch Site (Dongchang-ri launch site) through satellite images.

According to NK News, a U.S.-based North Korea specialist media outlet, satellite images taken by the private satellite company Planet Labs on the 23rd show signs that North Korea began maintenance work at the 'new launch pad' within the West Sea Satellite Launch Site located in Dongchang-ri, Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province, starting from the 16th.

The new launch pad is the site where North Korea launched the 'Manlilyeong-1,' which it claimed to be its first reconnaissance satellite, on a long-range rocket called 'Chollima-1' on the 31st of last month. The satellite images confirm that asphalt repaving has begun in the area. This is evaluated as repairs to the launch pad and surrounding launch site that were damaged during the previous Manlilyeong-1 launch.

On the 1st, the Korean Central News Agency released footage of the launch of the satellite carrier rocket "Cheollima-1," which carried North Korea's first military reconnaissance satellite "Manlilkyong-1," fired from the West Sea Satellite Launching Station in Dongchang-ri, Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province, on the 31st of last month.

Another satellite image also captured North Korea paving the road near the (existing) main launch pad with asphalt. In particular, traces of repaving around the engine test stand were observed, leading the media to analyze that North Korea is conducting concrete preparations for the re-launch. Additionally, satellite images show signs that a mobile building, presumed to be used for assembling the launch vehicle, has been moved from its original location toward the launch pad.

Experts' opinions on the timing of the re-launch are somewhat divided. Hong Min, head of the North Korea Research Division at the Korea Institute for National Unification, evaluated, "The fact that North Korea publicly acknowledged the failure and criticized the irresponsibility of its officials may indicate that it was not a simple defect." On the other hand, Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies, pointed out that there were no significant disciplinary personnel changes and predicted, "It is expected that they will proceed with the satellite re-launch as quickly as possible."

The Key Issue is 'Resolving the Defect'...Military: "ROK-US Monitoring North Korea's Movements"

The debris of the space launch vehicle 'Chollima 1,' launched by North Korea using ballistic missile technology, was recovered on the 16th, 15 days after it fell into the West Sea. It is being unveiled to the media at the Navy 2nd Fleet Command in Poseung-eup, Pyeongtaek-si, Gyeonggi-do. / Photo by Joint Press Corps

North Korea expressed its intention to 're-launch' immediately after the failure of the reconnaissance satellite launch. Furthermore, at the 8th Plenary Meeting of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers' Party held from the 16th to the 18th, it declared, "We will re-launch within a short period." During that meeting, a high-intensity review was conducted, strongly criticizing the 'irresponsibility' of the officials who oversaw the satellite launch project.

However, it remains uncertain how quickly North Korea can resolve the technical defects. North Korean authorities pointed to issues with the 'propulsion system' and 'fuel' as the causes of the Chollima-1 rocket's crash, and it is estimated that a considerable amount of time will be required from identifying the cause to conducting test evaluations. Considering North Korea's technological capabilities, the general view is that a re-launch in the near future is unlikely.

Since Kim Jong-un's 'major task' failed, the North Korean leadership's sentiments are expected to be complex. Tae Yong-ho, a member of the People Power Party and a former North Korean diplomat who defected, pointed out on the 20th that the term 'Chollima' evokes Chairman Kim Il-sung, stating, "Right now, what pains Kim Jong-un more than the satellite failure itself is that the Chollima, directly connected to Kim Il-sung, is stranded in the western sea and has been recovered by us."

Meanwhile, South Korean military authorities recovered debris presumed to be part of the second-stage propulsion system fifteen days after North Korea's launch vehicle crashed into the West Sea on the 15th, and the ROK-US joint analysis is currently underway. Additionally, search operations for further debris have continued for over three weeks. A military official said, "It is difficult to specify the timing of the (launch) right now, but ROK-US intelligence agencies are closely monitoring the timing of the re-launch."