[BusanIsReady] Saudi Backed by 'Oil Money'... Can Korea Pull Off a Last-Minute Comeback?

Expanding Support Base with Saudi Oil Money
Unpredictable Secret Ballot Vote
Focus on Busan Initiative
Yoon Leads All-Out Attraction Negotiations

"If we reveal the countries that have promised support, Saudi Arabia might initiate a second round of negotiations. Member countries can change their stance at any time. It’s not over until it’s over."

This is a statement from a government official in charge of the Busan Expo bid. With about five months left until the host country is decided, the '2030 Expo bidding war' is unfolding fiercely, reminiscent of a 007 spy thriller. The 'tactical battles' to gain even one more vote, strategies to dilute the negotiation activities of competing countries, and strategies to prevent voter defection are all being played out both on and off the stage.

South Korea is expanding its base of supporting countries through 'strategic confidential behind-the-scenes negotiations.' Special care is taken to maintain secrecy not only about countries expressing support but also regarding the dispatch of special envoys, multilateral meetings, and the travel routes of negotiating countries. According to officials from the bidding committee, the current situation is a tight '50-50' split. The government has revised its strategy to avoid broadcasting negotiation activities in real time and instead inform with a time lag. If contact with certain overseas officials becomes known, Saudi Arabia might attempt a comeback, rendering the painstaking efforts futile. The bidding committee refrains from exposing strategies that would not benefit the vote battle and plans to pursue Saudi Arabia quietly through 'silent negotiations' to stage a dramatic turnaround.

Expansion of Oil Money-Based Support Member Countries... Unpredictable Due to Secret Ballot

This is South Korea’s first challenge to host a registered exposition. The government confirmed the Busan Expo bid as a national project in May 2019 and established a bidding planning team in November of the same year. Subsequently, in July 2021, the bidding committee was launched, and full-scale promotional activities began.

On the other hand, Saudi Arabia has been confident about hosting the 2030 Expo since early 2021 and has publicly announced the support declarations of International Bureau of Expositions (BIE) member countries. Saudi Arabia started its bidding campaign about nine months earlier than South Korea and focused on targeting members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the African Union (AU), securing declarations of support from over 60 countries.

Saudi Arabia’s strength lies in being the world’s largest oil-producing country. It ranks first in crude oil exports and holds 17.2% of the world’s proven oil reserves. No BIE member country can easily turn its back on Saudi Arabia. The autocratic monarchy power structure also plays a role. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who took power in 2017, has staked his fate on winning the 2030 Expo bid.

Crown Prince bin Salman’s estimated fortune exceeds $2 trillion, over 2,800 trillion Korean won. He declared 'Vision 2030,' a core project to transform the oil-dependent economy into one centered on advanced manufacturing. To realize this, he has planned to complete 'NEOM City,' which is 44 times the size of Seoul, and aims to showcase the fruits of 'Vision 2030' by hosting the Expo in 2030. In effect, he is promising large-scale investments to BIE member countries based on oil money.

However, since the Expo vote is conducted by 'anonymous secret ballot,' the results remain unpredictable until the box is opened. Whether Saudi Arabia or South Korea, countries that have expressed support may change their minds and vote for another country at the actual voting. Feeling this threat, Saudi Arabia proposed an open vote to the BIE at the end of last year but was rejected.

Focus on Busan Initiative Storytelling... Yoon Leads All-Out Bid Negotiations

South Korea’s strength lies in its substantial experience hosting major international events and its advanced technologies to be shared with developing countries. South Korea has hosted two recognized expositions (specialized expos): the Daejeon Expo in 1993 and the Yeosu Expo in 2012. Particularly, Busan hosted the 2002 Asian Games and the 2005 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit, and is focusing on storytelling around the 'Busan Initiative.'

The Busan Initiative is a core strategy of the 2030 Expo, prepared with the intent that South Korea, having risen from one of the poorest countries to a developed nation, will actively address international challenges requiring joint responses, such as digital inequality, climate change, lack of educational opportunities, global health disparities, and food insecurity. Notably, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo and President Yoon Suk-yeol have personally participated in presentations. A government official explained, "It is unprecedented for top-level leaders like the prime minister and president to be directly involved in presentations. We aim to maximize the success rate of negotiations by not only providing objective data from the BIE inspection report but also by effectively communicating the attractiveness of South Korea through behind-the-scenes negotiations."

The voting method will also be actively utilized. Unlike the Olympics, which are decided by votes from International Olympic Committee (IOC) members, the Expo is decided by the choices of 179 member countries. Regardless of a country’s size or whether it is developed or developing, each country has one equal vote. One-on-one negotiations that accurately read each country’s voting intentions are expected to be effective. The government’s recent attendance at the CARICOM (Caribbean Community) summit, which has 12 votes, and visits to Pacific island countries such as Fiji and Samoa (11 countries) are for this reason. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo has also personally undertaken over 70 overseas trips in the past year and is conducting all-out bid negotiations with over 60 foreign ambassadors to South Korea.

Meanwhile, the 2030 Expo bid will proceed through the 4th competitive presentation and BIE official reception this month, the BIE official symposium in September, and the 5th competitive presentation in November, when the host city will be selected. If Busan is confirmed as the host city, South Korea will become the seventh country, following advanced nations such as France, the United States, Canada, Japan, Germany, and Italy, to have hosted all three of the world’s major mega-events: the Olympics, the World Cup, and the Expo.