[Politics X-File] Next President? If You Go to That Place in Cheongju, Chungbuk

21. The Barometer of Presidential Election Winners in Chungbuk
All Past Chungbuk Winners Became Presidents
In the 2022 Election, Cheongju Heungdeok's Vote Share Was Similar

Editor's Note‘Political X-File’ is a serialized project that delivers ‘unprecedented stories’ recorded in the election results and incidents of Korean politics.

South Korea experiences election fever every five years. A major event that turns the entire nation into political experts?the presidential election. The last presidential election was held on March 9, 2022. It feels like a recent memory, but it was already 1 year and 3 months ago. This means a new presidential election will be held in 3 years and 9 months.

Various opinion polls related to the next presidential candidates are already being released. Although they are still at the level of recognition surveys, the public shows interest because these are materials to check the direction of the next presidential election. So, who will be the winner of the next presidential election?

It is difficult to predict not only the candidates but also the election dynamics, but the direction can be gauged. This is because there are regions that show voting patterns almost identical to the winners in past presidential elections.

On March 31, food trucks set up along the Musimcheon Stream cherry blossom path in Sangdang-gu, Cheongju-si, Chungbuk, are attracting the attention of citizens. This is the first time a food truck festival is held on the Musimcheon Stream cherry blossom path.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

Which region is said to reveal who the next president will be, or more precisely, which party’s candidate will win the presidential election? That region is Chungcheongbuk-do (Chungbuk).

The reason why Chungbuk’s election results have attracted attention in past presidential elections is that since the restoration of the direct presidential election system in 1987, the equation ‘Chungbuk 1st place = presidential winner’ has been established in every election.

The 13th presidential election in 1987 was a contest where the ruling party’s candidate Roh Tae-woo faced off against the so-called ‘Three Kims’?Kim Young-sam, Kim Dae-jung, and Kim Jong-pil?all of whom ran. At that time, Roh Tae-woo won the presidency despite a low vote share of 36.6%.

Interestingly, although Kim Jong-pil, known as the political leader of Chungcheong, ran as the candidate of the New Democratic Republican Party, the winner in Chungbuk was Roh Tae-woo of the Democratic Justice Party. Roh Tae-woo secured an overwhelming 46.9% of the vote in Chungbuk, widening the gap with his competitors.

In the 14th presidential election in 1992, the first place in Chungbuk was also elected president. Although Jeong Ju-young of the Unification National Party caused a stir in the Chungcheong region, the first place in Chungbuk was taken by Kim Young-sam of the Democratic Liberal Party. Kim Young-sam received 38.3% of the vote in Chungbuk. Ultimately, the occupant of the Blue House was politician Kim Young-sam.

Vote counting is underway at the counting center set up at Mapo-gu Community Sports Center in Seoul on March 9, 2022, the day of the 20th presidential election. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

What about the 15th presidential election in 1997? In the 15th election, Kim Dae-jung of the National Congress for New Politics, who had a close race with Lee Hoi-chang of the Grand National Party, was also the winner in Chungbuk. Kim Dae-jung received 37.4% of the vote in Chungbuk, while Lee Hoi-chang garnered only 30.8%. That year, the presidency went to politician Kim Dae-jung.

The 16th presidential election in 2002 was called an election drama, resulting in politician Roh Moo-hyun being elected as the new president. In that election, Roh Moo-hyun received 50.4% of the vote in Chungbuk. Lee Hoi-chang received 42.9%, settling for second place in Chungbuk.

In the 17th presidential election in 2007, Lee Myung-bak of the Grand National Party was the winner in Chungbuk. Lee Myung-bak secured 41.6% of the vote in Chungbuk. Independent candidate Lee Hoi-chang, who had expanded his support base in the Chungcheong region, could not surpass Lee Myung-bak in Chungbuk.

The winner of the 18th presidential election in 2012 was Park Geun-hye of the Saenuri Party. Park Geun-hye recorded a high vote share of 56.2% in Chungbuk. Moon Jae-in of the Democratic United Party received 43.3%. Ultimately, the presidency was claimed by politician Park Geun-hye.

This trend was the same in the 2017 presidential election. Moon Jae-in of the Democratic Party received 38.6% of the vote in Chungbuk, leading his competitors. Ultimately, the presidency was claimed by politician Moon Jae-in.

On January 12 at 2 p.m., all the provincial council members of Chungbuk Province entered wearing hanbok at the 1st plenary session of the 406th extraordinary meeting of the Chungbuk Provincial Council.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

What about the winner of the 2022 presidential election, President Yoon Suk-yeol? President Yoon won the 20th presidential election after a close race, receiving 50.7% of the vote in Chungbuk, ahead of Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party, who received 45.1%. Last year’s presidential election also saw the winner being the first place in Chungbuk, President Yoon.

Chungbuk includes many areas with a high concentration of elderly populations, such as Goesan-gun. On the other hand, areas like Eumseong-gun and Jincheon-gun, centered around innovation cities, continue to experience development. The city of Cheongju, known as an educational city, and another central city, Chungju, serve as hubs attracting a steady influx of younger generations.

Why has Chungbuk become a barometer of presidential election trends? Although Chungbuk is regionally classified as part of Chungcheong, its sentiment differs from that of Daejeon and Chungnam. The so-called Chungcheong grand theory mainly ignites around Chungnam and Daejeon. Chungbuk’s sentiment also differs from that of Honam or Yeongnam.

Geographically, Chungbuk borders Gyeonggi, Gangwon, Gyeongbuk, Chungnam, Sejong, Daejeon, and Jeonbuk.

It is a space where the influence of specific regional sentiments is relatively less, and urban and rural areas are evenly distributed. This is another reason why Chungbuk is politically noteworthy, distinct from the metropolitan area.

Then, within Chungbuk, which area better reflects the presidential election results? Looking only at last year’s presidential election, Cheongju Heungdeok-gu is the key area.

President Yoon Suk-yeol is visiting Yukgeori General Market in Sangdang-gu, Cheongju-si, Chungbuk, on the afternoon of February 14, engaging in conversation with merchants. [Image source=Yonhap News]

President Yoon received 48.56% nationwide, narrowly defeating Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party, who received 47.83%, by 0.73 percentage points.

At that time, the vote shares in Cheongju Heungdeok-gu were 48.13% for Yoon Suk-yeol and 47.50% for Lee Jae-myung. Compared to the national average vote shares, Yoon’s difference was only 0.43 percentage points, and Lee’s was 0.33 percentage points.

The vote share gap between the two candidates in Cheongju Heungdeok was 0.63 percentage points, just 0.1 percentage points different from the national average vote share gap. The 2022 presidential election results thus closely mirrored the voting sentiment in Cheongju Heungdeok.

What will the results be in the 2027 presidential election? Whether Cheongju Heungdeok will again reflect the national average vote shares of the first and second place candidates remains to be seen. However, the pattern of the winner in Chungbuk becoming the next president is likely to continue.

The election results in Chungbuk in the 22nd general election on April 10 next year are expected to serve as a reference for predicting the 2027 presidential election.