60% of Citizens Support Nuclear Armament... Support Drops to 36-37% if Sanctions Are Imposed

Results of the Korea Institute for National Unification's First Half Unification Awareness Survey
Support for Nuclear Armament Considering Crisis 60% → 36%
'Support for Nuclear Armament' Drops 10%p in One and a Half Years

Six out of ten citizens support 'independent nuclear possession,' but support drops below 40% if sanctions are imposed due to nuclear development, according to a public opinion survey. The analysis also noted that despite North Korea's indiscriminate provocations over the past two years, public support for 'nuclear armament' is showing a clear downward trend.

According to the results of the Unification Awareness Survey (public opinion on South Korea's nuclear development) released by the Korea Institute for National Unification on the 5th, support for nuclear possession was recorded at around 60.2%. This is based on face-to-face interviews conducted nationwide with about 1,000 people aged 18 and over from April 15 this year to the 10th of last month, with a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points (P) at a 95% confidence level.

North Korea, Nuclear Weapons
Photo by Yonhap News

Although support for nuclear possession was shown to be a majority, after presenting six potential crises that could be faced due to pursuing independent nuclear development (economic sanctions, dissolution of the South Korea-US alliance, intensified security threats, nuclear development costs, environmental destruction, loss of peace image), support dropped to around 36-37%. More than 60% agreed with the possibility of these six crises occurring if nuclear development proceeds, and especially, 79.1% acknowledged concerns about 'environmental destruction.' Questions regarding the crises associated with pursuing nuclear development were newly included in this year's survey.

The Korea Institute for National Unification interpreted this as, "When asked whether nuclear weapons possession is still necessary despite the possibility of these six crises, public support for continuing nuclear development dramatically decreases," adding, "This means there is a need to fundamentally restart many public opinion surveys and discussions about South Koreans' desire for nuclear armament."

The support rate for nuclear armament itself also showed a clear decline compared to 71.3% in October 2021 and 69.0% in the same survey a year ago. Public opinion demanding the 'redeployment of US nuclear weapons in South Korea' was also a majority at 53.6%, but this was significantly lower than 61.8% in October 2021 and 60.4% in April last year, falling outside the margin of error. Additionally, when asked to choose between 'stationing of US Forces Korea' and 'possession of nuclear weapons,' 49.5% chose the stationing of US Forces Korea, while 33.8% selected possession of nuclear weapons.

The Korea Institute for National Unification analyzed, "This year's survey shows a significant decline in public opinion on the necessity of nuclear possession," adding, "Considering that North Korea's missile provocations have become more frequent since 2021 and relations with China have deteriorated, the decline in the perceived necessity of nuclear possession appears to be influenced by domestic political factors as well as the fact that the issue of independent nuclear possession has begun to be actively discussed in the public sphere."

Furthermore, the opinion that the South Korea-US alliance remains necessary reached a record high of 95.1% in last year's Unification Awareness Survey but dropped to 87.2% this year. It was noted that this is the first time the percentage has fallen below 90%. Regarding the transfer of wartime operational control, 70.8% of all respondents recognized its necessity. Among respondents who identified as supporters of the Democratic Party of Korea, 78.3% agreed, while 65.3% of People Power Party supporters agreed, indicating that a consensus on 'wartime operational control transfer' has formed regardless of ideological orientation, according to the Korea Institute for National Unification.