Presidential Office: "Clear Illegality... Confirming Willingness for Inter-Korean Cooperation"
'Shangri-La Dialogue' Focuses on Missile Intelligence Sharing
Army, Navy, Air Force Detection Equipment... Entering 'Emergency Standby'
As North Korea has announced the launch of its first military reconnaissance satellite, a trilateral North Korea cooperation system among South Korea, the United States, and Japan's intelligence agencies has been fully activated. Representative of this is the pre-information sharing, and the government held an emergency National Security Council (NSC) standing committee meeting to discuss response measures, followed by a strengthened response system with the United States and Japan.
On the 30th, a senior official from the Presidential Office described North Korea's satellite launch as a "clear illegal act" and stated, "As the will to strengthen the trilateral cooperation system against North Korea was repeatedly confirmed through recent South Korea-US, South Korea-Japan, and South Korea-US-Japan summits, a more reinforced cooperation system will be activated."
On the same day, Ri Pyong-chol, the second-in-command of North Korea's military and Vice Chairman of the Workers' Party Central Military Commission, publicly announced plans to launch the first military reconnaissance satellite next month. North Korea notified Japan, the regional navigation area adjustment authority of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), about the satellite launch the day before and for the first time directly mentioned the launch timing.
The South Korean government's stance is firm. It regards North Korea's notification as effectively a "long-range ballistic missile launch plan under the guise of a satellite" and warned, "If North Korea ultimately proceeds with the launch, it must bear the corresponding consequences and suffer the pain."
First Test of the New South Korea-US Security Cooperation
Within the Presidential Office, this is seen as the first test case to confirm the strengthened North Korea response system based on the 'Washington Declaration,' which includes the deployment of US nuclear strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula, secured during President Yoon Suk-yeol's state visit to the US last month. Moreover, since the recent South Korea-US-Japan leaders agreed at the G7 summit to deepen trilateral security cooperation such as real-time sharing of North Korean missile warning information, there is a high possibility that the trilateral cooperation system will become more concrete starting from this provocation. Previously, the South Korea-US-Japan governments have been discussing real-time sharing of North Korean missile warning information since the trilateral summit in Phnom Penh in November last year.
The specific trilateral cooperation measures among South Korea, the US, and Japan are expected to be confirmed at the Asia Security Conference (Shangri-La Dialogue) held in Singapore from July 2 to 4. This will be a meeting among the defense ministers of the three countries, where the real-time sharing plan of North Korean missile warning information will be intensively discussed. A new information-sharing system is anticipated that will overcome the limitations of 'post-verification' inherent in the trilateral information-sharing agreement TISA and the South Korea-Japan military information protection agreement GSOMIA, with the US acting as an intermediary.
Senior nuclear representatives from South Korea, the US, and Japan are also actively engaged in urgent discussions via phone consultations, including on North Korea sanctions and firm, unified responses from the international community. Kim Gun, Director of the South Korea Peace Negotiation Office, after a trilateral phone consultation with Sung Kim, US Special Representative for North Korea, and Takehiro Funakoshi, Japan's senior nuclear representative, pointed out that any launch by North Korea using ballistic missile technology clearly violates multiple UN Security Council resolutions and emphasized that it cannot be justified under any circumstances.
Earlier, Japanese media reported that South Korea and Japan have decided to connect their radar systems for detecting and tracking North Korean missiles through the US to immediately share missile information. This involves linking the command and control systems such as radars used by the South Korean military and US Forces Korea, and the Japan Self-Defense Forces and US Forces Japan, through the US Indo-Pacific Command. This approach aims to resolve the issue that South Korea and Japan, which are not formal allies, cannot share missile information directly by using the US as an intermediary.
Full Deployment of Army, Navy, and Air Force Detection Equipment
The detection equipment of the army, navy, and air force has entered emergency alert status. North Korea's satellite launch vehicle has technology similar to that of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), allowing the South Korean military to verify its detection capabilities and recover debris from the launch vehicle that falls into the sea. Currently, the deployed assets on alert include the Navy's Aegis destroyers, the Army's Green Pine radar, and the Air Force's airborne early warning and control aircraft Peace Eye, primarily stationed around the West Sea.
When North Korea launched the 'Unha-3' on December 12, 2012, the first to detect its trajectory was the Aegis destroyer Sejong the Great, which was on alert off the west coast. In 2016, when the Earth observation satellite Kwangmyongsong-4 was launched, the Air Force's early warning aircraft Peace Eye was the first to detect the trajectory.
If North Korea proceeds as announced, the carrier rocket carrying the satellite is expected to fly a trajectory where the first stage booster will be dropped into international waters in the West Sea about 230 to 300 km west of Daecheon Port, Chungnam, and the fairing (satellite protective cover) will be dropped into international waters in the southwestern sea about 270 to 330 km west of the Jeju naval base, then the second stage booster will fall into the sea about 700 to 1000 km east of Luzon Island, Philippines. The military expects a trajectory similar to the one used for the Kwangmyongsong launch seven years ago and is focusing on recovering launch vehicle debris. This will help analyze North Korea's launch vehicle technology.
After recovering and analyzing the launch vehicle of Kwangmyongsong-4 in 2016, the military concluded that the fairing lacked any measures against shock, vibration, or soot to protect the satellite, indicating that the launch was not intended for satellite purposes. However, there are concerns that if the range of this satellite launch vehicle has significantly increased, radar detection and debris recovery might be impossible. In 2016, the launch vehicle evaded the radar network of the South Korean Aegis destroyer over the southwestern sea near Jeju about six minutes after launch, causing confusion.
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