Director of the Institute for Unification Studies: "Kim Jong-un's daughter Juae may be the first child"

Director Goh Woo-hwan: "Kim Joo-ae is among the successor candidates"

There is speculation that 'Juae,' known as the second child of North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un, may actually be the eldest.

On the 26th, Ko Yoo-hwan, director of the Korea Institute for National Unification, said at a press briefing with reporters covering the Ministry of Unification, "Personally, I believe there is a high possibility that Juae is the eldest," adding, "(Whether Juae is) the successor or not will be confirmed later when they become the successor, but I think she is among the candidates."

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Director Ko also evaluated that the situation where Kim Jong-un is seen accompanying Kim Juae is similar to the 'Kim Il-sung-Kim Jong-il model.' Before Kim Jong-il was officially designated as the successor, he participated in military-related field guidance and entered the Political Bureau immediately after graduating from university in 1964. He then remained active for nearly 20 years until his father, Chairman Kim Il-sung, passed away. Similarly, Juae first appeared at the test launch site of the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Hwasong-17 in November last year and has since continued to accompany her father at military-related sites.

Director Ko assessed, "Rather than immediately putting his daughter forward, he is building virtues as a successor." In response to the question of whether a female leader can emerge in conservative North Korean society, he countered, "The leadership system can produce (female leaders) if it wants to."

A senior official from the Ministry of Unification also stated on the 22nd, during a meeting with reporters, that based on 'personal judgment,' it is unclear whether there is an eldest child above Juae, and if so, whether it is a son.

The current 'consensus' is that Kim Jong-un's first child is a son. Yoo Sang-beom, a member of the National Assembly and the People Power Party's ranking member of the Intelligence Committee, said, "Although there is no concrete evidence, the National Intelligence Service has reported that, based on intelligence sharing with external agencies, it is confident that the eldest is a son." However, an intelligence official drew a line against overinterpretation, stating that it remains "unconfirmed 'intelligence.'"

Goh Woo-hwan, Director of the Institute for Unification Studies Photo by Yonhap News

Additionally, Director Ko analyzed that North Korea's restraint from provocations since the announcement of the 'Washington Declaration,' which focused on strengthening extended deterrence at last month's South Korea-U.S. summit, could be a "dormant period for new policies." Given that it is currently the peak rice planting season and North Korea is focusing on agricultural issues, he evaluated that "they are prioritizing filling rice stores and focusing on a long-term strategy."

Regarding prospects for a seventh nuclear test, he said, "it is not imminent, but if it is a necessary process for the significant advancement of tactical nuclear weapons at the final stage, they will carry it out." He also pointed out a paradox if North Korea conducts a nuclear test. Since North Korea has already declared possession and completion of nuclear weapons, conducting an additional nuclear test implies that their technology is insufficient.