[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea Cuts Communication... Fiddling with Satellite Cards

As the suspension of inter-Korean communication lines prolongs, there is speculation that North Korea may be preparing a large-scale provocation. North Korea has not responded to regular calls using official communication channels with South Korea for over 50 days since the 7th of last month. This is the first time since the restoration on October 4, 2021, that the operation of communication lines between South and North Korea has been completely suspended.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to the military on the 28th, North Korea is consistently responding with 'no answer' to South Korea's attempts at regular calls using the Joint Liaison Office and military communication lines. Currently, there are no technical issues identified on the South Korean side of both the inter-Korean liaison office communication line and the military communication line.

North Korea cut all inter-Korean communication lines, including the Joint Liaison Office, in June 2020, citing the distribution of leaflets by South Korean civilian groups, but restored them in July 2021. Later that year, in August, North Korea again did not respond to regular calls, citing South Korea's joint military exercises with the United States, resulting in a 'no communication' state lasting about 50 days.

Inside and outside the military, there are forecasts that the communication blackout between the two Koreas will continue for a long time. Already, on the 13th of last month, a week after North Korea stopped responding to communication lines, it conducted the first test launch of the new solid-fuel engine ICBM 'Hwasong-18' under the observation of Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party. Additionally, with the announcement of a reconnaissance satellite launch, the military is maintaining a readiness posture, anticipating the possibility of another show of force. Given the ongoing 'strong versus strong' confrontation between the two Koreas, it means that reconnecting the communication lines will be difficult for the time being.

North Korea's next provocation is most likely to be a satellite launch. Earlier, on the 16th, the Workers' Party's official newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, reported that Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Party, inspected the Emergency Satellite Launch Preparation Committee's work on-site, confirmed that preparations for mounting the reconnaissance satellite on the launch vehicle were complete, and approved the committee's subsequent action plan.

Actual movements at the Dongchang-ri West Sea Satellite Launch Site in Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province, are accelerating. On the 24th (local time), the U.S. North Korea specialist media 38 North analyzed satellite images from the 16th to the 23rd of this month and reported that construction of the new launch pad is "progressing at an astonishing speed."

On the 16th, tracks installed on the pad were visible, which the media said appeared to be for a mobile assembly structure necessary for rocket launch preparations. Subsequently, on the 22nd, additional flooring was added, and on the 23rd, panels presumed to be on the exterior of a building were installed.

38 North also reported that the VIP observation area, from which the launch at the new pad can be viewed, appears nearly complete. Satellite images from the 16th show that additional shrubs were planted near a clearing surrounded by dense bushes, a location from which the new launch pad can be observed.

If North Korea launches the satellite, it is expected to occur before the 'Victory Day' on July 27. This could mark the beginning of the satellite era and emphasize military strengthening during the military parade.

Since long-range rockets for satellite launches and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) are technically almost identical, it is likely that North Korea does not need much time to prepare a launch vehicle for the satellite. Experts say that if weather conditions such as temperature, wind speed, and wind direction are favorable, the launch could be carried out as early as the beginning of next month. On the other hand, some analyses suggest that a launch in the near future is unlikely. Considering the various technical elements required for a reconnaissance satellite launch and the burden of potential failure, it is expected that North Korea will proceed with the launch more cautiously.

North Korea, which has announced the reconnaissance satellite launch, has not yet notified international organizations of the related plans.

Lim Soo-seok, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said at a regular briefing, "As far as we know, international organizations have not yet received notification from North Korea regarding the satellite launch," and added, "The government is communicating with relevant international organizations such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)."