[War & Business] Russia's "Kaliningrad": The Uncertain Future Behind Three Names

Kaliningrad, Russia's only ice-free port city, is an exclave located 400 km away from the Russian mainland. Surrounded by the three Baltic states to the east, the Baltic Sea to the north, and Poland to the south, it is literally an "island on land." Recently, with Finland joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Sweden hastening its accession, the area has become isolated on all sides.

The Victory Day military parade held on the 9th (local time) in Kaliningrad, Russia. Kaliningrad = TASS·Yonhap News Agency

As the war in Ukraine has turned Russia into an enemy of all Europe, there is a growing movement against recognizing Russia's sovereignty over this territory. In particular, the controversy has intensified since the Polish government declared on the 10th that it would no longer refer to the area as Kaliningrad but by its Polish name, "Krolewiec."

This city was originally indisputably German territory. In 1256, the Teutonic Knights, a Germanic crusading order, established the city as they expanded into the Baltic Sea region, and its original name was "K?nigsberg." The name means "King's Mountain" in German, as it was the site of coronations whenever a new king ascended in the Kingdom of Prussia, the predecessor state of modern Germany.

However, after Nazi Germany's defeat in World War II, the Soviet Union occupied the area, which has remained Russian territory ever since. After taking control, the Soviets expelled most of the original German inhabitants and renamed the city Kaliningrad after Mikhail Kalinin, one of the leaders of the Bolshevik Revolution.

From the late 1980s, as the Soviet Union weakened, there was a strong movement to return the territory to Germany. However, Germany declared it would permanently relinquish claims to the area during the reunification process of West and East Germany to gain Soviet support, solidifying its status as Russian territory peacefully.

But the situation has rapidly changed since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Surrounded on all sides by NATO member countries, the region is completely isolated, and its land and sea connections to Russia can be severed at any time. Especially if Sweden, which encloses the entire Baltic Sea as an inland sea, joins NATO, Kaliningrad will be utterly isolated.

With Russia's massive losses in the war in Ukraine reducing it to a paper tiger in Europe, the power struggles among countries surrounding this region are expected to intensify. Poland's recent declaration to rename the area in its own language is a strong signal that it intends to intervene directly in any future territorial disputes.

The local residents of Kaliningrad have also been greatly unsettled before and after the war in Ukraine. Various scenarios are being discussed, including remaining with Russia, reintegration into Germany, merging with Poland or a third country, and even independence under the name "Baltic Republic" with membership in the European Union (EU).

The three names given to the land of Kaliningrad, the complex identity of its residents, and the variable of the war in Ukraine are drawing global attention to how they will affect future territorial disputes in the region.

The territorial disputes over this area and the Baltic Sea waters will significantly influence many other inland sea territorial disputes worldwide, where the total width is less than 200 nautical miles. The most representative example among these is Dokdo, the subject of a territorial dispute between South Korea and Japan.