[Yoon Administration 1 Year] ④ Living and Dying by Diplomacy... Overcoming the 'Global Triple Hardship'

Supply Chain Crisis Triggered by Ukraine War
Triple Burdens of Inflation and Interest Rate Shocks Since COVID-19
Close US-Korea-Japan Ties... Rising Tensions Among North Korea, China, and Russia

The direction of ‘Yoon Suk-yeol’s new diplomacy’ is drawing attention. The Yoon Suk-yeol administration launched with slogans such as a ‘bold initiative’ for North Korea policy, ‘global pivotal state,’ and ‘Korean version of the Indo-Pacific strategy’ for foreign policy. It boldly expanded the axis of Korean diplomacy from Northeast Asia to the Indo-Pacific and drove sales diplomacy with the president acting as the top salesperson.

New Cold War Opens Amid Russia-Ukraine Invasion

From his first year in office, President Yoon faced turbulent international circumstances. The Russian invasion of Ukraine marked the beginning of a new Cold War system between the liberal democracies led by the U.S. and Europe and the socialist camp led by Russia and China. Additionally, the global liquidity surge caused by the COVID-19 pandemic led to inflationary pressures worldwide, and the resulting sharp interest rate hikes have caused ‘tightening convulsions’ as side effects in global financial markets.

South Korea has been walking a tightrope amid global economic difficulties such as supply shortages and inflation, navigating a silent security war among countries over energy, raw materials, and food, as well as the trade war between China and the U.S. Especially, the global Cold War structure triggered by the Ukraine war last year has created an atmosphere forcing choices between the U.S. and China.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Moreover, President Yoon’s diplomatic report card after one year in office is also poor. His approval ratings declined during every overseas trip due to controversies such as the civilian entourage scandal last year and remarks like ‘Biden? What if I ignore him?’ The government’s ‘forced labor solution’ announced ahead of last month’s visit to Japan received mixed reviews. The progressive camp criticized it as ‘humiliating diplomacy’ because forced labor victims refused compensation according to the government’s plan, while the conservative camp welcomed it as a ‘measure considering national interests.’

The recent state visit to the U.S. was no different. In a foreign media interview before the visit, President Yoon’s mention of Taiwan and Ukraine was seen as excessively provoking China and Russia, respectively. Furthermore, his statement, “I cannot accept the idea that Japan should kneel and apologize for something that happened 100 years ago,” attracted more attention than even the Korea-U.S. summit.

Pragmatism-Focused Korea-U.S.-Japan Tripartite Alliance

At the core of Yoon Suk-yeol’s diplomacy is pragmatism over rhetoric, practical diplomacy, and economic diplomacy taking the lead. In bilateral and multilateral relations, the Korea-U.S. alliance was closely knit, and the Korea-Japan relationship was improved to strengthen the Korea-U.S.-Japan tripartite alliance. President Yoon used this state visit to the U.S. to announce the Washington Declaration, establish the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG), and strengthen extended deterrence, including deploying U.S. strategic assets on the Korean Peninsula.

In the economic sector, 50 memorandums of understanding (MOUs) were signed in fields such as bio, industry, energy, and content, attracting $4.4 billion in investment. Regarding the Semiconductor Support Act (CSA) and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which became hot topics even before the trip, both governments agreed to continue seeking ways to minimize damage to Korean companies. During last month’s visit to Japan, economic diplomacy was restored by resolving the repeatedly stalled Korea-Japan relations over historical issues, easing export restrictions, and normalizing corporate exchanges.

This diplomacy is praised for focusing investment on the Korea-U.S. alliance under the banner of a global pivotal state, elevating it beyond security and economy to a global comprehensive strategic alliance. Despite domestic and international political backlash and tremendous resistance, the preparation of a compensation plan for forced labor victims has opened the way for normalizing the long-stalled Korea-Japan relationship, which is seen positively.

In a situation where global financial market instability and trade deficits are intensifying, the president’s role as ‘Korea’s No. 1 salesperson’ and the assignment of the responsibility and role of ‘No. 1 salesperson in the host country’ to overseas diplomatic missions have also received positive evaluations.

Calls for Strategic Balance

However, there are significant backlash and aftershocks against diplomacy skewed toward Korea-U.S. and Korea-Japan relations. It is pointed out that diplomacy focused solely on strengthening the Korea-U.S.-Japan alliance rather than strategic balance is provoking China, Russia, and North Korea, pushing the Korean Peninsula toward tension. Although not necessarily friendly with the North-China-Russia trio, at least hostile relations should be avoided. Yet, President Yoon’s successive hardline remarks, such as supporting Ukraine’s war premised on civilian massacres and opposing forceful changes in the Taiwan Strait status quo, unnecessarily provoke China, Russia, and other counterparts.

Especially, with China being South Korea’s largest export market and trade deficits becoming entrenched, mentioning Taiwan?a ‘core interest’ of China?is expected to have significant repercussions. It is also pointed out that the forced Japan diplomacy, carried out without national consensus, is leaving missteps. Japan has neither apologized nor compensated for wartime companies, and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s offering of tribute at Yasukuni Shrine is criticized as failing to elicit a ‘sincere response.’

President Yoon’s recent state visit to the U.S. is no exception. The ‘Washington Declaration’ agreed upon by President Yoon and U.S. President Joe Biden revealed differences in perspectives between the two countries. The Blue House stated on the 26th of last month that the two leaders had effectively agreed on nuclear sharing during the Korea-U.S. summit, but the White House firmly denied this, saying it should not be seen as nuclear sharing, which is expected to cause aftershocks. The Democratic Party harshly criticized President Yoon’s state visit, saying it ended as ‘not just empty-handed diplomacy but a national deception diplomacy.’