Former IAEA Deputy Director General "Not an Experimental Stage"
April Packed with North Korean Political Anniversaries Including 'Taeyangjeol'
April is a month packed with significant political anniversaries in North Korea, including the birthday of Chairman Kim Il-sung (Day of the Sun) and the founding day of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army. Following the unveiling of North Korea's strategic nuclear warhead at the end of last month and the detection of activity at the Yongbyon nuclear facility earlier this month, concerns are growing that the 7th nuclear test could occur in April, coinciding with these political events. However, some analyses suggest that a test is physically unlikely this month, as no notable activity has yet been observed at the nuclear test site.
Olli Heinonen, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center and former deputy director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), told Voice of America (VOA) on the 5th that "the experimental light water reactor (ELWR) at Yongbyon is not yet at an operational stage for actual testing."
Earlier, the North Korea-focused media outlet 38 North reported, based on satellite images taken on the 3rd and 17th of last month, that activities suggesting the ELWR was nearly completed and transitioning to an operational state had been detected. The outlet revealed photos indicating that the Yongbyon reactor was operational and that new construction had begun near the light water reactor. It also noted that water discharge from the reactor's cooling system had been detected.
However, researcher Heinonen analyzed that the small amount of cooling water discharge observed around the ELWR does not indicate actual operation but is likely related to purification or cleaning processes. He explained that this does not mean the reactor has transitioned to an operational state but rather that the ELWR has taken a step closer to becoming operational. Although Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party, ordered the 'exponential increase' of nuclear warheads last month, Heinonen predicted that securing additional plutonium for this purpose would take at least another two to three years.
Given that April is a month concentrated with major political events in North Korea, the possibility of a 7th nuclear test has been anticipated. April 11th and 13th mark the 11th anniversaries of Kim Jong-un’s appointments as the Party’s First Secretary and the Chairman of the National Defense Commission, respectively. April 15th is the 111th anniversary of the Day of the Sun, North Korea’s biggest holiday commemorating Kim Il-sung’s birthday. Additionally, April 25th marks the 91st anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army. Considering North Korea’s usual pattern of conducting high-intensity provocations around major political events such as the Day of the Sun, the possibility of provocations this time cannot be ruled out.
South Korea’s sensitive political schedule, which North Korea is likely to react to, is also concentrated in April. The trilateral joint maritime exercises between South Korea, the United States, and Japan took place over two days on April 3rd and 4th. At the end of the month, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol’s state visit to the United States and the South Korea-US summit are scheduled, drawing attention to how North Korea might provoke. North Korea has already effectively announced plans to launch its first military reconnaissance satellite in April.
Experts point out that it is difficult to predict the exact timing of North Korea’s 7th nuclear test. Jeong Seong-jang, head of the Unification Strategy Research Division at the Sejong Institute, said, "It is expected that the 7th nuclear test will be conducted as soon as within a few days or at the latest before September 9th, the 75th anniversary of the regime’s founding," but added, "No one can accurately predict the timing of North Korea’s 7th nuclear test."
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