[Apple Shockwave]⑧ The End of the 'Moore Era'... The Warring States Period of the 'Semiconductor Law'

'Moore's Law' Intel Founder Gordon Moore Passes Away
Intel, Apple, Nvidia Compete to Lead
Fierce Battle to Secure Future Semiconductor Dominance

[Apple Shockwave] is a content series that explores the upheaval caused by Apple entering the semiconductor market. You might wonder, why semiconductors from Apple? Apple is no longer just a company that makes smartphones and computers. After long efforts starting from its founder, the late Steve Jobs, Apple has designed world-class semiconductors used in mobile devices. If Intel was the giant of the PC era, Apple has become the top predator in the semiconductor ecosystem of the mobile era. Amid the global semiconductor supply chain crisis and massive investments in semiconductor production facilities, we will carefully examine the upheaval and prospects in the semiconductor market brought about by Apple Silicon to broaden our readers' insights. Apple Shockwave will visit readers every Saturday. After more than 40 installments, it will be published as a book.

Gordon Moore, Intel Founder. Photo by Intel

Gordon Moore (January 3, 1929 ? March 24, 2023). Founder of the American semiconductor company Intel. He is undoubtedly one of the most illustrious names in the history of semiconductors worldwide. Last week, he bid farewell to the silicon world at the age of 94.

Moore is the protagonist of Moore's Law, which states that "the density of semiconductors doubles every two years." This phrase he left behind is a 'scarlet letter' for future generations. It is difficult to uphold, yet hard to give up.

Moore is the history of semiconductors recognized by all. He worked under William Shockley, the inventor of semiconductors, and along with the "Traitorous Eight," founded Fairchild Semiconductor. Later, he and Robert Noyce independently established Intel. Noyce was the first CEO of Intel, and Moore was the second. The two hired Andy Grove, who later became Intel's third CEO, ushering in the true era of semiconductor integrated circuits. Although the integrated circuit (IC) was developed by Jack Kilby of Texas Instruments, Intel made it flourish. It was also Moore and Grove who boldly decided to abandon the DRAM business, which was losing to Japan.

Even now, Intel and several semiconductor companies compete to continue Moore's Law. Intel, Samsung, and TSMC are making relentless efforts to uphold Moore's prediction. On the other hand, Nvidia has declared the end of Moore's Law. Apple aims to design higher-performance semiconductors by focusing on process improvements. As they fiercely compete, the semiconductor ecosystem moves toward the goals of higher performance and lower power consumption.

Intel Falling Behind, "We Can Do Better Than Before"

Pet Galsinger (right), Intel CEO, posted a photo on his Twitter account with Gordon Moore, Intel founder, and paid tribute.

Last September, right after the U.S. Chips Act was legislated, expectations for semiconductor production reshoring in the U.S. were high. Pat Gelsinger, at the forefront of reshoring, said, "Moore's Law is alive and well." He claimed, "We will integrate about 100 billion transistors in a single package, and in 10 years, we will integrate one trillion transistors."

Semiconductors are a competition to integrate circuits with line widths invisible to the naked eye. Meanwhile, there is the added challenge of reducing power consumption. Although claims that Moore's Law had ended continued, Pat Gelsinger, who was brought in as Intel's savior in 2021, introduced the 'Super Moore' Law, stating that integration density would more than double every two years. He was confident that Moore's Law would hold for the next decade. Gelsinger also denied former Intel CEO Brian Krzanich's 2015 declaration that Moore's Law was slowing down. He positioned himself as the rightful heir to Moore's Law. Gelsinger knows well that the path ahead is difficult. But it must be done. Intel's and 'Made in America' semiconductors' future depends on his achievements.

Gelsinger's post on Moore's death also shows his determination. He said, "Moore said, 'What can be done, can be outdone.' Intel, inheriting Moore's Law, will continuously strive to do better than what Moore and Robert Noyce started."

However, reality is harsh. Moore's Law is a challenge for both integrated device manufacturers and foundry semiconductor companies. The advancement of fine nanoprocess technology has been delayed. The delay in the development of lithography equipment, essential for adhering to Moore's Law, was decisive. Without lithography equipment capable of drawing fine circuit substrates, no semiconductor company could advance. The hero who broke this barrier is the Dutch company ASML. ASML developed extreme ultraviolet (EUV) equipment with Intel's technical and financial support, but ironically, Intel lost the lead to TSMC and Samsung Electronics. This is why Intel still remains at the 10nm process while Samsung and TSMC compete in the 3nm race.

'Rising Power' Nvidia, Even on the Brink of Moore's Death, Says "Moore's Law is Dead"

Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA. Photo by NVIDIA

In any case, the fight to uphold Moore's Law is a competition among Intel, Samsung Electronics, and TSMC. There are no other contenders. Yet, a strange trend emerges. An unexpected name appears: Nvidia. The company run by the 'man in the black leather jacket,' currently the world's largest semiconductor company by market capitalization. Nvidia's view of Moore's Law is different. With a market cap four times that of Intel, Nvidia is confident. While Pat Gelsinger of semiconductor America defends Moore's Law, Jensen Huang, Nvidia's CEO, is a proponent of Moore's Law's demise. Intel, which manufactures semiconductors directly, says it can continue, but fabless Nvidia says otherwise. Whose words are correct?

Intel's efforts are mainly hardware-focused, but Nvidia is different. Nvidia claims Moore's Law is already dead and that they can continue it through software.

At Nvidia's 'GTC2023' event held on the 21st of last month, just days before Moore's death, Huang said during a conference call with Wall Street analysts, "Moore's Law through general-purpose CPUs is over." He confidently stated that GPUs designed by Nvidia will lead the future of the generative AI and cloud era. Just as ChatGPT, powered by Nvidia's chips, sparked the AI revolution, Nvidia is confident it will lead future semiconductor development.

Nvidia has even partnered with TSMC, which manufactures its GPUs. They plan to introduce accelerated computing technology into semiconductor lithography processes in collaboration with ASML, the exclusive supplier of EUV lithography equipment, and Synopsys, a leader in electronic design automation (EDA).

Particularly notable is Nvidia's software 'cuLitho,' which has attracted attention. It is software that speeds up semiconductor lithography. It declared its intention to advance the 2nm process by drawing integrated circuits through GPUs rather than CPUs.

CEO Huang expressed confidence, saying, "cuLitho will be the foundation for developing cutting-edge processes below 2nm technology."

Apple: "We Will Follow the True Visionary"

Apple CEO Tim Cook also mourned the passing of Gordon Moore. He said Moore was a "true prophet" and vowed to follow his path.

Another person who mentioned Moore's achievements is Apple CEO Tim Cook. Cook said, "The world has lost a giant named Gordon Moore. Moore was one of the founding fathers of Silicon Valley and a true visionary who paved the way for the technological revolution. We who follow now must be grateful to him."

Many Silicon Valley stars remembered Moore, but Cook's remarks are special. Apple today is not the Apple of the past. Apple already threatens, or may have surpassed, Intel, AMD, and Qualcomm. Intel's case, displaced by Apple Silicon, shows where the center of modern semiconductors is heading. Jensen Huang's confidence is similar. Considering the status of fabless semiconductor company Apple, Cook's remarks reveal Apple's determination to continue Moore's Law. They already have a partner: TSMC.

Morris Chang, founder of TSMC, expressed regret, saying, "Now all the first-generation semiconductor colleagues are gone." Perhaps Chang is confident that as long as he lives, TSMC will maintain its leadership in semiconductors. With the advances of TSMC, Apple, and Nvidia, could Moore's Law be transformed into 'Huang's Law,' 'Cook's Law,' or 'Chang's Law'?